The dwindling world order

For the last decade and a half, the world as been facing immense challenges. These issues are emerging after the War on Terror in which the USA with NATO and other multilateral institutions invaded Afghanistan. In reality, the war changed the course of governance, put Afghanistan into the stone age, and shackled the Eurasian regions.

After this bloody spate, the hyper-power, the USA, attacked Iraq, on the unreasonable agenda that its leader Saddam Hussein was working on Weapons of Mass Destruction. Later on, the Arab Spring in 2011 in the Middle-East paved the way for superpowers to exhibit their power.

The second decade also witnessed the Great Depression of 2008, after which China and Russia emerged again to deter or challenge the sole power of the USA and to end unipolarity. After the Arab Spring, the state of war and regime change became redundant. The war in Yemen, Syria, Libya, Tunisia, and Iraq changed the way of fighting and quarrels. The triad of powers, Russia, the USA, and China with lethal weapons, equipment and available resources tried to do down each other in the region.

In these two decades, with some mass events, there emerged some problems which not only eroded the new world order but damaged the peace in the world. As Barack Obama said while receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009: “We must begin by acknowledging the hard truth that we will not be able to eradicate violent conflicts in our lifetimes. There will be times when nations acting individually or in concert will find the use of force not only necessary but morally justified.” As he said: “The wars are justified today e.g in the Iraq invasion of 2003 where the USA found nothing except oil.”

We must work collectively for the welfare of the world, by expanding the international human rights regime, developing international criminal law, and showing a commitment to cooperative solutions to common problems

The first problem the world is facing is the redundancy in global military dominance. The justified wars filled the vacuum of conflicts. The wars in different regions, for example, Russia’s invasion in Ukraine in 2014, were struggles for power among the great powers. Ukraine was willing to join the EU. The second reason was the discovery of natural gas in the Black Sea. Because 40 percent of the EU’s gas needs are fulfilled by Russia through Ukraine, the independence of Ukraine would harm Russia economically and geographically. This wish of the EU and the USA was not fulfilled by the Russian invasion. Moreover, NATO along with the US forces helped to curtail the Russian invasion but failed.

The war in Syria was also a military power show because Russia was supporting Hafez al-Assad’s regime, and the USA was the ally of Saudi Arabia, which was inclined to overthrow his government. This complex nature of war led the powers to exploit Syria as well as the whole region.

Thirdly, the Afghan war where the situation was “ the war of all against all”. The thrust of dominance killed more than 70,000 people with more numbers of collateral damage. Finally, a report revealed that Russia aid the Taliban bounties in exchange for killing US soldiers. This lust for military hegemony exalted Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Central Asian region for more than 19 years.

Secondly, there as been a decline in diplomatic power. Machiavelli said, “If a ruler wants to survive he must learn to stop being good.” That is true for today’s world, as with an increasing number of wars diplomacy is waning. Rulers are becoming readier to display hard power and inflict wars, change regimes, adopt new warfare technologies and launch cyberattacks, and reducing the soft power or diplomacy to solve the matters. For example, the trade war between China and the USA could be averted by using good offices, reconciliation, or diplomacy. But both countries supported unilaterally calling their diplomats back, raising tariffs, and applied protectionists policies which further escalated the tension.

Also, the death toll in the Nagorno-Karabakh region could have reduced if both parties had diplomatically avoided the war, which ended with Azerbaijan’s victory.

The third problem includes; Changing Alliances. The interest game has led the world to change its alliances. In the Middle-Eastern region the triad of Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the UAE is a spearhead for almost 58 Muslim countries Because Saudi Arabia is a Muslim hub of religious and holy places. To reduce the power of Iran and to dominate the whole oil-rich region, it decided to join hands with Israel with the help of Donald Trump. Moreover, the changing nature of power politics in the Eurasian region is makin old alliances to join hand with the rising powers. For example, the signing of RECP ( Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) on November 15 by almost 15 countries is a rival multilateral agreement against the Trans Pacific Partnership from which the USA withdrew in 2017. It will strengthen the power of the members or will balance power between Eastern and Western nations. Along with this, China’s entry into the Middle-East to help to alleviate Iran’s economy and connecting her with the One Belt One Road initiative will increase the animosity in the Strait of Hormuz. These alliances and counter alliances will increaase the conflictual legacies, because the world due to these problems will face a new cold war in the coming decades.

Then there is the power of social media to spread hate. With the rise of globalization, technological advancement has also surged. The total population of the world is around 7.8 billion and the total cellphone users are about 5 billion. The rising number of technological gadgets also gives rise to the spread of fake or hateful material. As in the case of Pakistan, and India, the EU leading DisInfo Lab accounted that India is using more than 750 media outlets to spread hatred and disinformation against Pakistan at different forums like the UN and in the EU, using individuals, fake NGOs, think tanks, and news agencies. Moreover, Cambridge Analytica turned the tides in favor of Trump in 2016 election, later causing a scandal. Facebook has said it believes that up to 87 million users’ data was improperly shared by Cambridge Analytica. They claimed that their data and research helped Donald Trump in winning the election.

The rise of Nationalism and Populism in the world is another factor. In the present decade, we are witnessing populist and nationalist leaders. For example, the rise of Donald Trump halted the democratic norms with the unilateral withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, and Trans-Pacific-Partnership. He also threatened the EU to raise more money for NATO. His protectionists policies de-globalized the world. Along with this, Narendra Modi is in power with fascist and Hindutva ideology hating Muslims as well as Sikhs. India always claimed secular politics which is not seen in the region. Further, Erdogan and Imran Khan in power, in Turkey and Pakistan respectively, equally distorted the liberal political values.

Robert Oppenheimer said: “The optimist thinks it is the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears it is true.” Since the human presence in the universe, people have been facing a plethora of problems.

They include pandemics, wars, civilizational conflicts, climate change as well as political prolems. With the dawn of every new century, existing problems became old and coming issues distress umanity. We had faced around two world wars in the last century and the USA became the hegemonic power controlling the new world order. As we see, in the second decade of the 21st century its power seems waning with the rise of Russia, China, and Multilateralism.

We must work collectively for the welfare of the world, by expanding the international human rights regime, developing international criminal law, and showing a commitment to cooperative solutions to common problems. Otherwise, power in few hands will demolish this fast-moving world.

The writer is a freelance columnist