The ‘annus horribilis’ of 2020 segueing into 2021 is stating but the obvious. The world has been devastated by the coronavirus pandemic during the preceding year in a manner beyond imagination.
Total number of confirmed deaths from Covid-19 so far is 1.8 million, and counting.
Ironically, the western world, despite having some of the best health systems in the world, has been hit hardest. Only in the United States 354,233 people have perished and in the UK 73,512.
Prime minister Imran Khan faces a double whammy. On one side he is well aware that unless he shows a modicum of performance in governance and managing the economy, it will be difficult to sustain himself in face of the opposition’s onslaught against him.
The singular hope is the vaccine that is now being marketed .But in the interregnum it is estimated, the worst is yet to come.
In Pakistan too, as a result of the disease, more than 10,000 have already died. Thankfully, the impact of covid-19 in Pakistan has been relatively mild. If the pandemic had hit with full force it would have been Armageddon for us as well.
The Government can take due credit for this. But the social , political and economic impact has been calamitous all over the world including Pakistan. As the misery continues into the New Year, matters will get worse.
Pakistan’s virtually negative growth rate coupled with record inflation and manufacturing at almost at a standstill do not auger well for the economy. The resultant inflation and unemployment have manifestly increased the suffering of the teeming masses.
The country has been impoverished to such an extent that it is being sustained through record loans, mostly at commercial rates. 2020 was the year of record debt that mushroomed to nearly $113 billion. According to State Bank of Pakistan, an additional $1.6 billion was added at the end of June last year, which is more than during the PML-N’s five years rule.
Major glitches remain in the international lending agency IMF’s EFF (Extended Fund Facility). The country received $1.44 billion of the 3-year year $6 billion bailout package. The third tranche is still under review.
Reportedly, there has been some agreement with the IMF to hike power rates and bring the circular debt down. Already electricity rates have been increased. Axiomatically this means more hardships for the common man.
Prime minister Imran Khan faces a double whammy. On one side he is well aware that unless he shows a modicum of performance in governance and managing the economy, it will be difficult to sustain himself in face of the opposition’s onslaught against him. On the other, if he does not meet the conditionalities of the lending agencies, it will be virtually impossible to run a bankrupt country.
Khan has already reached half of his five-year term. He recently exhorted his team to click as there was little time left to show results. This is the biggest challenge facing the prime minister in the New Year.
Unfortunately, the PM and his team has been unable to get its act together. Full marks to him for sincerity and dedication. But sadly the road to hell is paved with good intentions.
Khan rightly says that when he took over, the economy was already in a bad shape. Added to that, the pandemic made matters much worse. But now the buck stops with him. He got elected prime minister to deliver on his promises not just to make excuses.
In a democracy, that we claim to be, matters are conducted through consensus not by fiat. But the PTI government’s ongoing feud with the opposition is endemic. According to the prime minister, the opposition are corrupt who through their misrule and shenanigans impoverished the country. Hence, he will have no truck with them. Resultantly he does even want to shake hands with them.
There is not even a modicum of a consultation process between the government and the opposition, not even on vital issues facing the nation. The opposition’s backs to the wall, Khan have forced a union that looked impossible only a few months back.
JUI-F (Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-F) chief Maulana Fazl ur Rehman failed to unite the opposition under one banner with his mostly solo march against the PTI government late last year. Only a few months later he succeeded simply because the opposition parties have been left with no other option.
The newly formed opposition party’s alliance Pakistan Democratic Alliance (PDM), with the Maulana being the moving spirit behind it has put the government on notice to quit, failing which, it has threatened a long march and resignations en masse from the parliament.
With Khan fully entrenched and having the support of the establishment, this is unlikely to happen. But the instability it will engender is bound create more uncertainty.
But Khan is fixated on his oft- repeated mantra ‘I will not give an NRO (withdraw legal cases against the opposition through an Ordinance). A motely crowd of spokespersons around the prime minister have been assigned the singular talk of castigating the opposition as thieves and crooks on the media.
A false reality is thus created to hide the government’s own incompetence and ineptitude. Announcing new development schemes has become a hobby horse of the prime minister. Nobody is willing to explain where the money for such grandiose schemes will come from
A policy reset is needed not only for this year but for the rest of the PTI’s tenure. Khan, no matter how much he believes in himself, cannot do it alone. No matter how much he thinks that the opposition is a bunch of ‘chors’ unworthy of his attention and acceptance, they are an integral part of the political matrix.
The prime minster should also consider revamping his team. A 52-member cabinet is too large and hardly viable in such difficult times. Most ministers are fellow travellers who are in the government owing to sheer opportunism rather than competence.
As Khan had promised, he should have a lean and mean cabinet of twenty or so, which is perhaps not possible owing to his numbers in the parliament. The government spokesperson should be the information minister instead of the multitude that surrounds the airwaves and the PM 24/7. Shibli Faraz will do fine.
Various spokesmen keep on ridiculing the opposition that it does not really want to reform the NAB (National Accountability Bureau). But their real intention is an NRO for themselves through blackmailing the government. In reality the so-called accountability watchdog is the cat-paw of the government for vendetta against its opponents.
It is high time the accountability process is made transparent and even-handed through consensus.
If the prime minister is really keen to make a clean government, charity begins at home. He should show the door to some members of his own team who are by no means squeaky clean.
In the present milieu, 2021 might be the year of make or break for him.
