After getting ex-PM Yousuf Reza Gilani elected Senator by the National Assembly, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) has apparently selected Punjab as the most vulnerable point of the PTI, and a series of meetings after Mr Gilani’s election have made it likeliest that the opposition’s next move will not be a vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Imran, but against Punjab Chief Minister Usman Buzdar. At a certain level, he is low-hanging fruit. He is already in the sights of the powers that be, and any commitment to him is purely Prime Minister Imran Khan’s, whose personal selection he is. It can even be argued (and probably will be), that it shows the PDM is actually more willing to do what Mr Khan has been reluctant to do so far.
Mr Buzdar’s performance has been nothing like that Mr Khan had promised, and halfway through the PTI’s tenure, it seems unlikely that he will be able to up his game. This is likely to be very costly for the PTI, for his lackadaisical administrative style combines with a poor economic performance to feed the opposition narrative of PTI incompetence. Another advantage, from the PDM’s point of view, is the thinness of his majority. The PDM is aware that it only had to make 16 MNAs switch, to give Mr Gilani a victory by five votes. It has to manage a smaller number in the Punjab, to bring Mr Buzdar down, so narrow is the government majority. Especially after Mr Khan took a vote of confidence from the National Assembly, the attractions of bringing a vote of no-confidence against him is thereby reduced, and it seems that the PDM would prefer to focus on the Punjab at the moment, though only as a stepping-stone to the real target of removing Mr Khan at the centre.
One of the difficulties that the PTI faces is that there is a separate move, by no means the first, for Mr Buzdar’s removal. He has personally been ineffectual in countering this, relying supinely on Mr Khan’s ability to resist the pressure. If he is removed because of internal party struggles, any successor might get some time while he is assessed for electoral ability.
