As the May 1 deadline for a possible US troop exit from Afghanistan approaches, the Biden Administration has a near impossible task at hand, to somehow broker a power sharing equation between the Afghan government being run by President Ashraf Ghani and the Taliban. In a blunt and rather threatening letter U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken did not mince his words, warning President Ghani that unless he agreed to the ‘interim’ arrangement being proposed, the Taliban would make “rapid territorial gains” soon after the USA exited the country, something that was under ‘active consideration’. The letter strategically mentions that a copy of the same had also been sent to Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah who emerged as the second most popular political leader following a fiercely contested 2019 general election leading to a dispute that naturally had to be resolved by US intervention. The message sent to President Ghani seems to be simple enough: agree to the proposal of a “transitional Peace Government” or we will find someone who will.
Considering the Afghan government’s response to the letter, it seems Ghani is standing his ground, as his Vice President underplayed the importance of Blinken’s letter, stating that only elected representatives could govern the country and the USA could not make decisions on behalf of the Afghan people. This puts the Biden Administration in a very precarious spot. On one hand they are unable to convince the Taliban to renegotiate a deal that it inherited from Trump and on the other a rigid and stubborn Ghani is refusing to play ball and do what the USA feels would be a comfortable middle ground that would not lead to violence. Efforts by the USA, mentioned in the same letter, outlining how they were seeking the support of countries like Turkey, and even rivals Iran and Russia, to coordinate a “unified” approach to peace might not succeed if the elected Afghan civilian government is unwilling to give the Taliban a seat at the table, even temporarily.
Pakistan remains central to the negotiation process, having some sway over the Taliban, which is why US Special Envoy for Afghan Reconciliation Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad met with COAS Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa on Monday to discuss Washington’s new diplomatic push. However, Pakistan should not simply agree to whatever the USA wants it to do without getting something in return. A longstanding unfulfilled demand, of persuading the Afghan government to eliminate terrorists operating on its side of the border who attack targets in Pakistan, should be met before agreeing to ‘do more’ yet again.
