A US intelligence report has warned that India and Pakistan may stumble into a large-scale war. Coming as it does at a time when both countries are still engaged in coping with the economic fallout of the covid-19 pandemic, the report should make both countries realize the horrendous consequences of an all-out war. The neighbours need to ensure that nothing is done that can trigger hostilities.
Pakistan wants a resolution of the Kashmir issue in accordance with the wishes of the Kashmiris. In the short run, it wants a return to the era prior to the abrogation of Article 370. India lays claim to Azad Jammu and Kashmir. It also maintains that there are terrorist camps on this side of the LoC which must be dismantled and cross-border infiltration stopped .
It is not only the USA which is alarmed at the possibility of a conflict in South Asia. Pakistan’s Arab allies who have invested in both India and Pakistan, more so in the former than in the latter, are wary of any conflagration in the region. Numerous reports have appeared during the last few weeks about attempts by these countries to encourage the ongoing backchannel meetings between Pakistan and India. Several developments indicated that the backchannel talks were beginning to produce results. The process however received a jolt when Prime Minister Imran Khan first agreed to import cotton and sugar from India without consulting the Foreign Office and then suddenly backtracked and said there could be no talks till India restored the autonomous status of Indian-occupied Kashmir.
Backchannel talks can better produce results than open parleys in the case of sensitive issues. In Pakistan and India it is a challenge to deal with domestic interests as well as media leaks which can distort the purpose of an open dialogue on such issues. Backchannel talks are hidden from the electronic media which has developed an unquenchable thirst for anything that improves ratings, be it a sensational half-truth or a story in the making that can take an altogether different turn in the light of public reaction. While back channel talks need to continue, the PTI government has to improve the inter-departmental handling of sensitive national issues.
