The US troops will start leaving Afghanistan in lockstep with NATO forces from May 1, completing the withdrawal by August 11, the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attack. Secretary of State Antony Blinken flew to Kabul to convey the message personally. He apprised COAS Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa of the decision through a phone call. While in Kabul Mr Blinken also called upon other countries in the region, “especially Pakistan” to support Afghanistan after the US departure.
The sudden withdrawal would demoralize Afghan government and troops. A considerable section of the Afghan population comprising women, minority groups and dissidents that had enjoyed freedoms after the defeat of the Afghan Taliban, would feel betrayed. The sudden departure would boost the Taliban’s morale, who will take credit for defeating the superpower, the USA, and forcing it to retreat on their terms.
Most of the Afghan rural area is currently under the control of the Afghan Taliban who also occupy the hinterland outside the government-controlled cities and major towns where they have set up a parallel administration. The Afghan Taliban’s advance had been mostly stemmed by the allied air forces. The government’s security forces may not be able to withstand the Afghan Taliban’s onslaught combined with terrorist attacks.
The USA wants neighbouring countries, especially Pakistan, to fill the vacuum created by its departure. This gives one a sense of déjà vu. In1989 soon after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, the USA declared it had achieved its aims and withdrew from the region leaving Pakistan to hold the baby. Pakistan had to pay a heavy price for helping the USA. It had to provide shelter to millions of Afghan refugees. It was flooded with modern weapons and heroin and lost thousands of civilians and law enforcement personnel as a result of attacks by mujahideen turned terrorists.
The sudden US departure while a civil war looms on the horizon would create conditions suiting terrorist groups like the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Baloch separatists, Daesh and Al Qaeda to target Pakistan. The offer by TTP to TLP for joint attacks in Pakistan should not go unnoticed.
Pakistan needs to hold urgent talks with China, Russia, Turkey and Iran to devise a joint strategy to deal with the crises brewing in Afghanistan.
