Before being formally hired for the job and sworn in as the new Finance Minister, Shaukat Tarin was realistically critical of the mess that the PTI government had made over the course of almost three years. He believes the IMF package was badly negotiated considering the economic situation at the time and we left too much on the table, thereby forgoing our best national interests. Part of the deal was fleshed out under Asad Umar, touted by Prime Minister Imran Khan for years as the finance and economy guru with a recovery plan blueprint in his back pocket he was aching to implement. It is widely believed that his rigidity in accepting many of the IMF’s demands lead to his ouster. For the purpose of closing the deal, a more familiar and friendlier Dr Abdul Hafeez Sheikh was brought in to close the deal. Shaukat Tarin has dealt with the IMF before during his stint as finance minister under the PPP regime. Whether or not he is able to renegotiate better terms with the Fund, as he is proposing, remains to be seen.
On the revenue front he believes that the FBR must increase its tax collections by 20%, but in the past three years the sort of stability required to bring about the required reforms and changes has been lacking. In the absences of a competent chairman given the appropriate amount of control, time and resources to achieve targets, it seems unlikely the revenue number will grow. This is where Mr Tarin must intervene to get things moving in the right direction.
A rigid bureaucracy will also pose a significant impediment, partly due to years of doing things the same way and more recently the fear of NAB that has slowed down the pace of work. Mr Tarin has said NAB rules have to be changed to not only allow the bureaucracy to function more efficiently but to make it easier to bring better people into the fold from the private sector.
His statement that the economy is completely directionless and requires someone at the helm ready to make tough decisions and take charge is therefore a valid criticism. The Prime Minister has said he has full confidence in Mr Tarin’s ability to turn around the economy. One hopes he is allowed to execute his plan, navigating the typical roadblocks and uncertainties associated with the job.
