The PML(N) victory in the Khushab by-election for the provincial constituency could have been predicted, for not only did the party win the seat in the general election, but it had given the by-election ticket to the son of the deceased MPA. However, the PTI could also have been expected to win the seat, for not only did the provincial party in the past manage to achieve by-election victories, but by-election defeats for the PTI have been occurring with depressing regularity.
All that the Khushab by-election showed was that the PTI has been unable to expand its appeal, at least not in the arid land of Nurpur Thal, where there is great poverty and great underdevelopment. More worrisome for the PTI would be the losses that have come within a month, consisting of defeats on seats it had vacated. Let alone gain seats from the opposition, the government shows that it is unable to retain those that it previously held.
This does not bode well for the party’s performance in the next general election, due by 2023, especially since the PTI had won the latest general election after making wild promises of lower tax and utility-bill burdens, and a plethora of jobs and houses. Instead, there has been devaluation, inflation and higher bills. The ordinary man feels pushed from pillar to post. He is not impressed by the supposed achievements of the regime, like the improvement in the balance of payments, focusing on the price he pays for wheat and sugar. The new Finance Minister has spoken of the need, and his intention, to renegotiate the agreement with the IMF, and is making all the right noises about power tariffs and taxes. Whether there is enough time for the new Finance Minister’s measures to make a difference is moot, especially since, in merely two and a half years, so much accumulated damage has been inflicted upon the economy that it will be an uphill task to put the economy on the kind of high-growth trajectory required The lessons of not just the Khushab by-election, but that all the recent spate, is that there might be terrible punishment by the electorate of economic mismanagement.
