US withdrawal from Afghanistan

The United States has announced complete withdrawal from Afghanistan. US President Joe Biden announced that America will withdraw its military by September 11, 2021, exactly 20 years after the 9/11 Twin Towers attack. “It’s time to end America’s longest war,” Biden said. Official data indicates that the U.S. has spent $978 billion on the Afghan war between 2001 to 2020. The US and NATO forces entered Afghanistan in 2001 to topple the Taliban government, in response to the Al-Qaeda attack on twin towers and Taliban’s refusal to hand over Al-Qaeda Chief, Osama Bin Laden, to the US.

This is not the first time the US is leaving the region after a deadly conflict. After the first Afghan war, which ended in the disintegration of the USSR, the US conveniently left the region, leaving Afghanistan and Pakistan to counter the issues of militancy, religious extremism and the Taliban.

Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton admitted in an interview with Fox news that, “The Soviets left Afghanistan. And then we said great, goodbye – leaving these trained people who were fanatical in Afghanistan and Pakistan, leaving them well armed, creating a mess, frankly, that at the time we didn’t really recognize.”

Observers maintain that the US is not doing anything different this time, because even after its longest war the US has failed to eliminate the Taliban from the country. A large territory of the country is under the Taliban’s control and this war has paved the way for extremist groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda to establish their basis in the war-torn country. Experts reiterate that the US withdrawal will make the situation worse.

Analysts in Pakistan maintain that the circumstances for Pakistan can also become menacing. There is concern that the counterterror gains following Operation Zarb-e-Azb in the former FATA region might be lost in the absence of US forces. Even though Pakistan has almost completed the Pak-Afghan fence, it is not a sure safety against cross border attacks, observers say.

Since the US has announced its complete withdrawal, there is a new wave of militancy attacks in the country. Taliban have started fresh attacks against Afghan forces. Thousands of people have left their houses in the Helmand province of Afghanistan after the Taliban launched a massive offense against the army. “Many who still have not found shelter in the city need urgent assistance,” noted provincial council head Attaullah Afghan.

The concerns were vindicated on Saturday, when a bomb attack targeting a girls’ school in Kabul killed at least 85, mostly schoolgirls.

Authorities claim that the withdrawal has been done under a US-Taliban agreement, which means the Taliban now holds political legitimacy. This means Washington has accepted the Taliban as a strong political actor in Afghanistan, hence, held negotiations with them, which appears to be another success for the Taliban. After a two-decade war, observers contend that the US has accepted the Taliban as a powerful entity, at the cost of thousands of lives, and the destruction of economic and social structures.

Another major consequence of this whole scenario, as mentioned earlier, would be ISIS gaining space and base in the country. In the last couple of years, ISIS has gained power in different parts of the country, attacking Taliban, civilians and the military of Afghanistan. There are reports that the US has secretly supported the Taliban against ISIS, but after its withdrawal, it seems highly unlikely in the future.

Experts say that this means more attacks, militant clashes, civilian casualties, leading to a civil war situation is inevitable. What worries many observers is that the US might distance itself from these realities and might even may blame Afghanistan or Pakistan for “spreading terrorism” and will continuously urge the both countries to “do more” to stop urgency. Another concern shared is that while Washington has a major role in bringing Afghanistan to the current situation, the world might not blame the US for instability in Afghanistan in the coming future.

Experts also issue reminders of the situations created in the past, just like in the Middle East, where the US toppled Saddam Hussain’s regime and tried the same with the Assaad regime in Syria, which resulted in complete devastation of the whole region and the emergence of extremist organisations like ISIS. The fear is that those situations might be similar to the one now in Afghanistan.

Last week, four FC soldiers were martyred and six others were injured in a cross-border attack in Manzakai sector in Balochistan’s Zhob. In a statement, Pakistan military media wing said, “terrorists from Afghanistan ambushed them”.

Madiha Afzal, a research fellow at the Brookings Institution, says that Pakistan would need to continue to seek cooperation with the US even after the withdrawal of troops, which shouldn’t be limited to the strategic situation in Afghanistan.

“The new focus recognises that a geo-strategic approach only goes so far, and if Pakistan is to rise on the world stage, that position will have to be predicated on economic growth”, she noted.