Implications of the US withdrawal

In 2021, Afghanistan has emerged as an object of concern for her neighboring countries and for other regional and international powers. During the 20 years of its intervention, the USA has suffered 22000 casualties and spent approximately $143 billion in Afghanistan. In January 2021, the USA announced, “it had reduced its forces in Afghanistan to 2500, the lowest level since 2001, in advance of the potential full military withdrawal by May 2021”.  The expected withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan is difficult to be optimistic about, because there are various actors within Afghanistan and its neighborhood. So it can be said with certainty that no country in the region may remain untouched by its consequences. The neighbouring states are reviving their older geostrategic objectives. Though, no one neighbouring state wants to see an unstable Afghanistan or any kind of threat from the diverse Afghan groups and the destabilized country. But the new commitment of the international community for Afghanistan may hold the potential threat of disruptive political culture, uncertainty and insecurity.

Whether the USA withdraws from Afghanistan, the country will remain engaged with international powers, particularly its neighbour states. Peace  will not come automatically, but it will come with a well-designed agreement by all stakeholders in Afghanistan and neighbouring countries. As portrayed, different future scenarios above will bring different level of difficulties, and Afghanistan may still be in need of comprehensive measures and plan of action by international community to safeguard its interest in future

At Bonn, the responsibility was divided among the several countries to train the national army and police; disarming of private militias; reintegration into society; eradication of poppy; constructing of legal system. The financing for humanitarian aid and development of the country was a shared project of the international powers. But the international community failed because it could not assign and define the role and long-term partnership of regional powers in the recovery of Afghanistan. While the regional states have their permanent interests in Afghanistan, therefore they may also have the opportunity to compete constructively in providing developmental assistance.

After the withdrawal of the USSR from Afghanistan the international community also backed away from their commitment and washed their hands during the civil war in the country. The repugnant acts of the Taliban brought Afghanistan back on to the international platform to be discussed. The event of 9/11 pushed the world into the War on Terror and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. In October 2001, U.S. and NATO forces invaded Afghanistan to remove the Taliban regime which harbored Al-Qaeda. Foreign forces remained for the last 20 years with the mission of counterterrorism in the country but the level of financial assistance declined over time.

In December 2017, the US national security strategy launched a commitment to support the Afghan Government and Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) in the fight against terrorism and Taliban. Despite their reaffirmed commitment and deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan the USA desired to withdraw their forces.

There are many concerns about the outcome of the US withdrawal from the specious and unclear environment of Afghanistan. Experts of security studies think that if the USA leaves Afghanistan, the Taliban may resume control over the vast area and the country return into the same situation as in the 1990s with the characteristics of sharia rule. The Talban has also emerged as a legitimate political actor and has made deals with the government and the international actors. The leadership of ethnic groups and small warlords are willing to support a Taliban regime on sharia. The return of the Taliban regime cannot address the grievances of the Afghan population. The security situation may also erode and the country again becomes the platform of terrorist activities. This situation may also lead towards civil war and fragmentation of ethnic groups. It will be more difficult for young people, particularly women and minorities. The negative impact will be more noticeable in the country where health care and education will decline and the movement and freedom of women will also be decreased.

The withdrawal of US troops will be followed by the withdrawal of finance by the international community and the country will face more difficulties for the public development sector. The flow of Afghan elite, refugees and brain drain will increase. As a reaction to this Afghanistan may become a new front of regional and international actors like China, Russia, Pakistan, India and Iran to engage the Taliban to achieve their own geopolitical interests.

This situation brings back the environment of proxy wars. The sustainable peace depends upon the support of regional actors particularly Pakistan, Iran China and Russia. Neighboring states may continue their support of Afghanistan’s local beneficiary groups to maintain stability in the regional balance of power. Moreover the peace of Afghanistan and the region depends on the Afghan government’s stability and capacity of dealing with challenges of corruption, trade of opium, human rights, minority rightsand patron-client system of the population.

Whether the USA withdraws from Afghanistan, the country will remain engaged with international powers, particularly its neighbour states. Peace  will not come automatically, but it will come with a well-designed agreement by all stakeholders in Afghanistan and neighbouring countries. As portrayed, different future scenarios above will bring different level of difficulties, and Afghanistan may still be in need of comprehensive measures and plan of action by international community to safeguard its interest in futur.