Russia-Pak Relations: Challenges for the Region

Unhealthy big-power competition and aggressive rivalry prompted the recent visit of Sergey Lavrov, the Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, to visit Pakistan in April 2021 after a long gap of seven years where, in discussions with his counterpart, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, the Foreign Minister of Pakistan, he exchanged views on wide array of subjects from co-operation to strategy, including the situation in Afghanistan.

In the region the current phase of realignment commenced when US President Barack Obama announced the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in 2014, especially Russia and China began attempts to form a joint front of China-Russia-Afghanistan-Pakistan through high-level visits and consultations and in the same year in the month of November the Russian foreign minister visited Islamabad and signed an Agreement on Bilateral Defence Cooperation with Islamabad. As India, over the years in the post-Cold War period, slowly moved towards the USA and also signed with it a nuclear treaty in 2008, perhaps Russia and China in response, commenced encircling India, and decided to make an effective front to tie New Delhi’s hand for doing anything better in its neighbourhood and to ensure a dependable ally in the region. Under the plan and a calculated strategy, especially China erected several hurdles in India’s neighbourhood and improved its strategic relations with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar and in many more countries with the help of its ambitious project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Causing surprise to no one, China is at the forefront of opposing the USA and India while post-Soviet Russia has taken a back seat, giving Beijing a free hand to achieve their common goal. Thus, as a result of this ongoing mind game, various challenges have emerged in their bilateral and multilateral dealings and solving issues of mutual interest.

The April visit of the Russian Foreign Minister is a clear indication that Russia is moving closer to Pakistan and away from India. On the other hand, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and its diversification of the USA into more than one sphere has provided Russia an opportunity to expand Kremlin’s power and influences in the region with the help and support of Pakistan along with the tacit consent of China and now, it is up to countries of this part of the globe to reshape their policy preferences for the benefit of their national interest

Within a year of independence,Pakistan, the old ally of the USA, which was also later a member of SEATO and CENTO in the region, and the USSR established diplomatic and bilateral relations on 1 May 1948, and despite being in US camp and its staunch supporter in Asia, it enjoyed relatively healthy and strong relations with the USSR for a decade till the American-backed military coup of 1958.

As it was the phase of Cold War between the two superpowers of the world in which Pakistan was clearly sided with the USA, no substantial improvement was registered in their bilateral relations except between 1965 and 1971 when the USA imposed sanctions on Pakistan, the latter turned to the USSR, which supplied the defence equipment to Islamabad worth of $310 million, but soon their relations became tense when in 1971 at the time of the Indo-Pak war of 1971 the USSR backed New Delhi and it signed a 20-year Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation on 9 August 1971.

Further, the diplomatic relations between the two countries deteriorated when the Soviet Army intervened in Afghanistan to save a Communist government in December 1979 because Pakistan fully supported the USA during the subsequent war and also supplied FIM-92 Stinger missiles to the Mujahidden who were fighting against the Soviet Army in Afghanistan. In the war of Afghanistan which lasted about a decade, Pakistan’s support to the USA and the West proved very costly for the USSR, causing a heavy loss of human lives, arms and ammunition and other matériél. However, the wheels of change again turned with the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and curtailment of US aid to Islamabad under the Symington and Pressler Amendments of October 1990.

The relations between the two countries again returned to normal after the USSR’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and cut of aid to Pakistan by the USA. In the light of new developments, Russia and Pakistan began to come closer and in that direction the first such attempt was made by then PM Benazir Bhutto in 1995, but Russia did not gave any positive result because her government recognised the Taliban-controlled regime of Afghanistan, However, Islamabad continued its efforts  to warm up the relations with Russia and despite some ups and downs, in April 1999, Nawaz Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, paid an official visit to Kremlin, the first trip there by a Pakistani prime minister in 25 years.

In the same year on the one hand Moscow welcomed Pakistan for making a breakthrough in its relations with India with the Lahore Declaration, but soon criticized Islamabad for the outbreak of the Indo-Pak War at Kargil in 1999 and mediated between them to end the war, although it  remained hostile towards Pakistan.

The war of Kargil was followed by a military coup in which Army Chief Pervez Musharraf replaced Nawaz Sharif in October 1999, and in April 2001 the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia visited Pakistan where both countries agreed to co-operate in economic development and to work towards peace and prosperity in the region. Viewing India’s growing proximity with the USA, Russia appeared ready to make Pakistan its strategic partner and change its earlier policy. Russia President Vladmir Putin in 2011 publicly welcomed Pakistan’s bid to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and said that Pakistan was an important partner in South Asia and the Muslim world.

As a result of the large-scale deep understanding between Russia and Pakistan, a series pf high-level visits and exchange of delegations from both sides were undertaken and a defence cooperation agreement between the two was signed in 2014 and military-level exercises began in 2015 and continued onwards. By the time the regional and global atmosphere was also charged because of the growing rivalry and polarisation of nations in favour and against.

Keeping in view the current status, the April visit of the Russian Foreign Minister is a clear indication that Russia is moving closer to Pakistan and away from India. On the other hand, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and its diversification of the USA into more than one sphere has provided Russia an opportunity to expand Kremlin’s power and influences in the region with the help and support of Pakistan along with the tacit consent of China and now, it is up to countries of this part of the globe to reshape their policy preferences for the benefit of their national interest.