What Prime Minister Imran Khan told The NewYork Times indicates that Pakistan’s Afghan strategy has led us up a blind alley. While Pakistan’s relations with Afghan governments have generally been problematic, it appears that the Afghan Taliban too are unwilling to listen to us after the USA announced the pull out of its troops. What one gathers from the PM’s remarks is that Pakistan can play no role in stopping the civil war other than closing borders with Afghanistan.
As the civil war rages and the Taliban advance, Pakistan will have to pay a heavy price if the situation continues to deteriorate. To start with, the number of ungoverned spaces in Afghanistan will increase. War will provide Pakistan-specific terrorist groups, currently sheltering on the other side of the border, a big opportunity to acquire lethal weapons while the chaos generated in the country would help them to launch more lethal attacks inside Pakistan. With several tribes living astride the Durand Line it would be difficult to stop Afghan asylum seekers from entering Pakistan.
After the myth of strategic depth, the myth of strategic location is also getting blown up. The question from The NewYork Times if Pakistan will continue to have any strategic relevance to the USA after the pullout, drew a blank from the PM. When asked what he meant by Pakistan seeking civilized relations with the USA, the PM said he was asking for a relationship like the one that exists between the USA and Britain, or between the USA and India. Britain is the fifth largest economy in the world while India is to overtake Britain in 2025. To have a civilized relationship with major powers, Pakistan will have to pay more attention to its economic development than anything else.
Pakistan needs peace in Afghanistan for its internal stability and for the all-important transit trade with Central Asia. Pakistan has therefore to do all it can to persuade the Afghan Taliban that any government imposed by force will not be acceptable to most countries, including neighbouring states and those who have so far financed the war-ravaged Afghanistan. What’s more, unless there is a consensus on government formation it may not be possible to ensure the unity of Afghanistan which is badly riven by ethnic and sectarian divides.
Afghan / Pushtoon consider the land beyond Durand Line and upto the banks of River Sindh as their land. During the cold war era Pakistan (with support of US) created Taliban against Uzbek/ Tajik forces for control of these Afghan lands. Taliban/ Pushtoon at that time were in control of Pushoon area and aligned themselvs with Pakistan for their sultanate on Kabul. However, 9/11 and Al-Quida’s entry changed this equation.
Pakistan’s double role for sheltering Al-Quida terrorist, helping US for $$$ and keeping Taliban in check (as its B-Team) to independent control of all Afghan lands resulted in creating fissures/ factions in Taliban. It suited Pakistan for years as Afghan Taliban could not focus on their Pushoon land. Pakistan ultimately played double game with all i.e. US/NATO, Afghanistan & Taliban while searching ground with Al-Quida, Turks & Chinkys.
Today everyone including US/ NATO forces, Russia, China, Iran, Taliban (all factions), Pustoon of NWFP, Turk, Soudi, Iran, Tajiks, Uzbeks etc understood this past double game of Pakistan. All of them also realize that Pakistan won’t allow peace in Afghanistan. This is because peaceful Afghanistan will demand its Pushoon territory beyond Durand Line upto the banks of River Sindh. Pakistan in the past and even NOW is befooling the world. It is projecting itself as victim and desirous of peace in Afghanistan but in fact acted only to keep Afghan burning. To me it is Pakistan’s MAJBOORI to keep Afghanistan burning or else this fire would have been and even in future will burn the Pushtoon Area of Pakistan. This is the precise reason that Uncle Sam, Ruski, Chinky, Turk, all desire guarantee from Pakistan for peace in Afghanistan.
Today Pakistan is a pariah nation of the world and under tremendous pressure from all corners to delivering its promises made with each of them. Unfortunately, NO ONE in world believes GoP or its establishment which made treachery with all since its inception. The rulers of present day Pakistan, are left with nothing except blaming India for defaming it around world as it always did in the past. 🤔