The evolving situation in Afghanistan has become a matter of great concern for the International community. Afghanistan has long been the theatre of ‘great power’ rivalry between the USA and Russia. Both espoused starkly different policies vis-à-vis Afghanistan but neither was successful in bringing peace and stability in the country.
A two-decade-long presence of US troops to curb the insurgent forces has also been unsuccessful. Consequently, the exit of the troops and allied forces will also not bring any peace or stability for the country. Rather, the intra-state situation is likely to get worsened due to the threat of civil war or a possibility of complete takeover by the Islamist extremists. This would definitely reverse the peace process in an uncontrollable manner which may be the ending of this new beginning.
Initially, the peace process was to begin with the agreement between the USA and the Taliban on 29 February 2020 in order to end the two decades-long war in Afghanistan. It aimed for a phased US military withdrawal, if granted certain security guarantees from the Taliban including severing the ties with Al Qaeda. However, this long-drawn process finally began on 12 September 2020 which was attended by key regional and international stakeholders. The conditions of the negotiations were so questionable that the future of these peace talks were far from promising. Despite the agreement with the USA, violent attacks continued all over Afghanistan as the number of Taliban-led attacks remained significantly consistent. The UN Security General quarterly report supports this argument as despite the evolving situation in Afghanistan, there were about 3,458 casualties suffered by the civilian population by mid-2020.
Nonetheless, a report by the United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team revealed in May 2020 that the Taliban still continue to maintain close operational and ideological ties with Al Qaeda. This led to incidents of violence including the assassination of key political figures like Vice President Amrullah Saleh and Fawzia Koofi, who was one of the most prominent women of the Afghan delegation in the Doha negotiating peace talks. At one side, where the Taliban reject all these UN reports, the findings raise some serious doubts about the sustainability of the Afghan peace process.
Even in the South Asian tangle, both India and Pakistan are in favour of enduring peace and stability in Afghanistan. But both of them have opposing views when it comes to the future political system of Afghanistan. Pakistan’s primary objective for its involvement in Afghanistan, however, is to secure its strategic depth. While India considers Pakistan as the biggest obstacle to peace in Afghanistan, it must accept that Pakistan has weaved itself intricately into the Afghan reconciliation narrative, with the USA acknowledging it as an indispensable force in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table. This in itself is an achievement because these negotiations are the only ray of hope for ending the 40-year old war in the regional buffer-zone that is Afghanistan.
Considering all these situations, it adds up to the uncertainty coming out of Washington. Undoubtedly, both Presidents Trump and Biden have expressed a keen desire to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, but this withdrawal will certainly be conditions-based. From the time President Biden was Vice-president during the Obama Administration; he had been consistent in his stand. Even the US Ambassador to Afghanistan, William Ruger, has been in favour of a military withdrawal claiming that : “America has achieved [its] three primary objectives: attrite the Al-Qaeda, kill or capture Osama bin Laden, and secure counterterrorism guarantees from the Taliban.”
Moreover, the Taliban remain an unrepentant force, opposing compromise as they compel the Afghan government to concede significant political control of the country to be promised through the intra-Afghan negotiations. The Taliban are unwilling to compromise on two crucial demands; “making the Hanafi school of Islamic jurisprudence the guiding principle to frame laws in post-conflict Afghanistan, and using the US–Taliban agreement as the basis for peace negotiations.” But for the Afghan government, both of these situations are obnoxious, considering the desire of the government to reform the society in a way in which it could reflect plurality and acceptance for a better national future.
Although the two political rivals eventually signed a power-sharing deal that came into effect in May 2020, but there remained some biggest points of contention between the two parties. The major friction was caused due to the composition of the government’s negotiating team for the intra-Afghan-negotiations to engage Taliban. Others were the creation of a new cabinet and appointment of the High Council for National Reconciliation (HCNR), issued by President Ashraf Ghani via the presidential decree instead of by the head of the HCNR, Abdullah Abdullah. Ghani not only appointed the Council unilaterally, but also incorporated some of his allies into some crucial positions. Similarly, the Taliban demanded for release of their 5000 fighters to which President Ghani refused but Abdullah insisted on compliance. Such differences between the two rival parties, despite the distribution of power between them, would certainly endure in the future.
The future of Afghanistan is largely contingent upon how regional and international stakeholders respond to the evolving political and security situation there. While long-term peace in Afghanistan would be advantageous to all powers involved, the need to secure their respective strategic interests in the country,often at odds, could altogether threaten the prospects for peace. Moreover, existing bilateral tensions between many of the external players could spill over into Afghanistan, undermining collective regional efforts and significantly altering the outcome of the process. So far, all external powers have unanimously expressed support for an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled peace process.
Even in the South Asian tangle, both India and Pakistan are in favour of enduring peace and stability in Afghanistan. But both of them have opposing views when it comes to the future political system of Afghanistan. Pakistan’s primary objective for its involvement in Afghanistan, however, is to secure its strategic depth. While India considers Pakistan as the biggest obstacle to peace in Afghanistan, it must accept that Pakistan has weaved itself intricately into the Afghan reconciliation narrative, with the USA acknowledging it as an indispensable force in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table. This in itself is an achievement because these negotiations are the only ray of hope for ending the 40-year old war in the regional buffer-zone that is Afghanistan.
Writer is clearly a product of Zia’s SNC.