US troops vacated Bagram airbase amid complaints that this was done without coordination with the Afghan Army. The evacuation marked the policy shift which aims at managing the situation in Afghanistan from outside the country. Gen Austin Miller, commander of NATO’s Resolute Support Mission, has been ordered to hand over command to CENTCOM chief Gen. Frank McKenzie. The US military mission in Afghanistan will henceforth concentrate on protecting the US diplomatic presence in Kabul and maintaining liaison with the Afghan military, instead of fighting. Another military office based in Qatar will be administering US financial support for the Afghan military and police, plus maintenance support provided for Afghan aircraft from outside Afghanistan.
Meanwhile the Afghan Taliban continue to advance and capture the countryside. This enables them to block the highways leading to Kabul. Once major cities are surrounded, it would be easier to capture them. The battle for Kabul can wait meanwhile. As civil war rages, thousands of people are forced to flee. The number of internally displaced persons continues to increase. Over time millions of the homeless, with no financial support, are bound to head for Pakistan.
The refugees will share the already inadequate social amenities with the local population. The unskilled refugees will compete with local labour, bringing down wages. Those belonging to the trading community would compete with local traders and transporters, giving birth to bickering. During the Zia-era migrations, a section of the refugees introduced heroin as well as lethal weapons, increasing the number of addicts and giving a spurt to violence. The Taliban’s assumption of power will embolden the extremist groups in Pakistan. Terrorist networks like the TTP, that presently face difficulties to target Pakistan from safe havens in Afghanistan, are likely to send their operatives in the guise of refugees to launch terror attacks.
Pakistan still has enough clout with the Taliban. Afghanistan being a landlocked country, the Taliban get supplies mostly through Pakistani territory. Their leaders visit other countries through Pakistan. When on the run the Taliban take shelter in the adjoining tribal districts. Under the circumstances, Pakistan has to exert pressure on the Taliban to support a broad-based and inclusive government in Kabul. Only an inclusive government will receive the international financial support needed to run and develop a devastated Afghanistan.
