While there has been a definite improvement in the Covid-19 pandemic, as reflected in the decline in the number of new cases and deaths, going by a worldwide trend, in which it seems that the third wave has receded, may be a cause for celebration, but not relaxation. Such statements, as the one by Education Minister Shafqat Mehmood, that exams were to be held in August, exhibit a kind of premature triumphalism. While sluggardly students cannot be encouraged to hope for a postponement, it is premature to predict anything so confidently about something happening in August. In fact, the holding of exams is a reflection of the new normal: nothing can be predicted, not exams, not weddings, not even taxes (certainly not the last-minute crushes on the last date of filing returns). The certitude that Mr Mehmood showed is no longer possible. The authorities have now got to face the possibility of a fourth wave, and have got to prepare for its hitting Pakistan too, along with the rest of the world.
This new wave may comprise cases of the delta variant of the coronavirus. It is more transmissible, and more resistant to the vaccine. Because of this, its virulence threatens much of the progress that has been made in recent months.
It is not that the government is not trying, as shown by the recent reimposition of air travel restrictions (which have been imposed by other countries as well). However, the vaccination drive has not been going as well as planned. The number of those who have received both doses is nowhere near as high as it should. And there was a recent shortage of vaccines, which meant people had to be turned away from vaccination centres. While that shows that an earlier worry, that people might be too suspicious to get vaccinated, is wrong, it does show that there are still problems in the supply chain. The government also needs to ensure that its reopening is not premature, and should not insist on it out of misplaced pride.
