The Imminent Fall of Kabul

It was the late 1980s when the USSR pulled back its troops from Afghanistan after nine years of direct involvement. Today a similar situation is being witnessed as the long-drawn-out “War on Terror” comes to an end as the USA withdraws its forces from Afghanistan leaving the region in a hostile atmosphere. The Taliban have started to reclaim major areas of northern Afghanistan, which was a stronghold of the NATO forces since 2001. Panjwai, a key district in the southern province of Kandahar, fell into hands of the Taliban just two days after the US forces left Bagram Air Base which is close to Kabul. Having a lack of ammunition supply the Afghan forces are left with no option but to flee, and hundreds of them have already fled to Tajikistan as the Taliban marches towards the north.

The majority of the districts have been recaptured by Talibans without any fight, as the governor house and police headquarters are taken over, and the writ of the Afghan government is shrinking day by day. The startling situation has raised the concerns of the entire region after the USA has pulled back. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is losing his grip as Afghan forces are crumbling across the country and his writ is merely around Kabul’s Presidential palace.

There is panic both within and outside Afghanistan, and the neighbours are brainstorming on future geopolitical strategies to maintain law and order. So far the Biden Administration has not bothered to talk with Prime Minister Khan on the recent major development which will definitely have severe effects in Pakistan which shares strategic borders with Afghanistan.

In the past the Taliban penetrated and influenced from the northern borders of Pakistan and were the key reason for instability. Recently there was a national security discussion in Parliament regarding the changing atmosphere in the north. However the common response from all across the country was to not provide any base to the USA and avoid being a party in the post Afghan war, as Pakistan with a weak economy cannot afford to engage in a direct conflict with the Taliban. Not just Pakistan but other stakeholders of this region like China and Russia are also closely monitoring the situation but so far not coming up with a clear stance.

The US intelligence predicts the fall of Kabul in six months after the US withdrawal. Ghani’s visit to the USA was not fruitful as the Biden Administration is not keen to lend further support to the fragile Afghan government; apparently it seems the USA was already having backdoor diplomacy with the Taliban and silently agreed to their takeover. Otherwise there was no point in calling back the troops at this stage knowing that the Taliban have gained control in most parts of the country. After the Taliban gains control back in Afghanistan there are possibilities that Afghanistan might turn into a safe haven for the terror outfits from across the world, making this region more hostile, and increasing the tense environment on the Pak- Afghan border.

The Pak-Afghan border fence will decrease the influx of terror from Afghanistan but still there is a lot to be done as there are many like-minded groups and parties in Pakistan who have a soft corner for the Taliban and can become vulnerable for the peace of the country

The Taliban are anti-democratic; therefore they will try to bring hurdles in the democratic process of Pakistan for which the stakeholders in Pakistan must gear up and keep their own house in order so that the external rising forces do not get a chance to spoil the hard-earned peace. Ironically Prime Minister Imran Khan remained absent from the national security meeting, giving a wrong message. Pakistan has lost thousands of innocent lives, including soldiers and political leaders like Shaheed Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto, during the War on Terror. The situation is sensitive hence every step must be taken with collective discussions and wisdom.

The Pak-Afghan border fence will decrease the influx of terror from Afghanistan but still there is a lot to be done as there are many like-minded groups and parties in Pakistan who have a soft corner for the Taliban and can become vulnerable for the peace of the country. The unfolding events are making it obvious that sooner or later Kabul might fall into the hands of the Taliban, therefore it is important for Pakistan to engage with the USA so that the after-effects of their withdrawal could be nominal.

The international powers need to revisit their Afghan policy and put in sincere efforts for stability in Afghanistan other than the use of force as in the past the gigantic Soviet and the powerful allied force NATO could not bring permanent stability and change in Afghanistan. On the other hand Pakistan needs a solid foreign policy which should be in its own interest as Pakistan will be facing repercussions of any instability in Afghanistan.