“Many have dreamed up republics and principalities that have never, in truth, been known to exist. The gulf between how one should live and how one does live is so wide that a man who neglects what is actually done for what should be done learns the way to self-destruction rather than self-preservation.”
Niccolò Machiavelli
It is difficult to imagine when an effort to inflict damage upon others may actually turn into heaping destruction upon yourself. This keeps happening simply because those who are given to conjuring up fictional situations usually end up rueing the penchant.
Afghanistan presents a similar situation. The government in Kabul, hoisted through a disputed election which none has certified, knows its bounds are shrinking with each passing day, but its stalwarts remain incensed with the idea of staying in power. In the process, they are actively sabotaging the prospect of reaching a negotiated settlement with other stakeholders for agreeing on a formula for sharing power in the interim, leading to a permanent settlement of the problem for peace to return to the war-ravaged country. The crisis is that, faced with the Taliban onslaught, their hold on power is loosening and the end is increasingly in sight.
Such a strategy has become even more important in the light of the statement by the Taliban spokesperson that, for the sake of peace, Ashraf Ghani will have to quit. In such an event, they have also promised their support to a negotiated settlement with all other stakeholders. This brings the focus back on the Ghani triumvirate: are they desperately stuck with clinging on to power irrespective of the consequences for the state and the people, or will they relinquish charge for peace to return to Afghanistan? That is where it rests at this juncture, and that is where it will continue to rest for a limited period of time into the future unless, of course, the Taliban go for the dreaded surge and take over the country by force. With the prospect of a negotiated settlement increasingly being pushed back by the Kabul triumvirate, the chances of a violent takeover can no longer be ruled out. Delusion inevitably breeds destruction.
Instead of looking inwards to formulate a strategy to negotiate for a way out of the crisis, the triumvirate in power comprising Ghani, Amrullah and Mohib have intensified their hate spree against Pakistan whom they blame for every failing of their government. Pakistan is that one country which has suffered the most because of the continuing war in Afghanistan and has endeavoured ceaselessly for facilitating negotiations, first between the USA and the Taliban and then between the Taliban and the Kabul government. Instead of making the most of the opportunity, the latter has used it as a weapon to assert its authority over an adversary that is war-hardened, having just emerged successfully from fighting a prolonged and savage combat against the combined might of the USA and NATO. This comes across as nothing short of a delusional espousal of self-destruction.
With the Western support having dissipated leaving behind a military which is barely trained in the annals of fighting a prolonged war, the options of the Kabul government are limited. This constraint is further augmented by the geopolitical state of the region which has undergone a transformation over the last couple of decades. Unlike the past, it would no longer lend support to any belligerent moves that the Kabul government may be envisaging as a last-ditch effort to save its hold on power. The dream of resuscitating a Northern Alliance-like war machine is beyond reckoning as it will not have the requisite regional support. Under the circumstances, a negotiated settlement with the Taliban appears to be the best option for the Kabul government. But the layer of hubris is far too thick for them to see the writing on the wall and save the Afghan people from further fratricide. As a matter of fact, they seem hellbent on continuing with their hara-kiri act.
The reality stings, but it must be faced. Over the years, more so since the initiation of the democracy experiment, Afghanistan has turned itself into a launching pad for terrorist acts aimed at destabilizing Pakistan on the behest of its masters– the Indians. As part of this gameplan, they continue to subvert the efforts for securing peace in their own country and, consequently, the entire region. It is principally aimed at sabotaging the initiative for opening up avenues for economic development in the region. As part of the overarching US-led “contain China” policy, this drive may trigger a new cold war era in the world. While the USA may escape relatively unscathed from this ill-thought-out plan, it is the countries of the region, more so the contiguous neighbours of Afghanistan, which will be roasted in the heat of another unnecessary conflict.
The current Afghan leadership has mistakenly linked its future with the furtherance of this devilish plan which will bring them no peace. The contrary may be the truth. While countries of the region have spoken against the prospect of a violent takeover by the Taliban, there is also unanimity that the incumbent Kabul government is unlikely to become a willing partner in the advent of peace in Afghanistan. The deep-set infatuation to stay on in power, irrespective of the consequences, is fraught with real danger of the war continuing into the future which, according to all rational appraisals, would not be in the interest of Afghanistan, its neighbours and the larger region. But the challenge is to make the Kabul triumvirate understand that prolonging the conflict will not provide the means for peace to return to Afghanistan. Only engaging in meaningful talks will do so.
It is Pakistan which is likely to be the worst affected as a consequence of this spree of violence across its Western border. When the US and the NATO forces are completely withdrawn, and if no peace deal is secured before that, this level of violence is likely to increase further which will inevitably lead to an influx of refugees into the neighbouring countries. This would include Pakistan, which is already hosting over 3 million of them at the cost of its economic and social fabric. Given the current state of security, any more refugees filtering across the border would be absolutely untenable.
So, whichever way one looks at it, continuing strife in Afghanistan is not in the interest of any country. But, unfortunately, the incumbent triumvirate in Kabul looks at it as a saviour of their corrupt rule. Thus, they are investing their energies in subverting the process of negotiations. The recent bombing of the Taliban positions by the US would embolden them further. Yet, the sword hangs over Pakistan’s head that it is not doing enough. This is a vile travesty.
Under the circumstances, what are the options that Pakistan has? It can continue putting in the effort to facilitate a negotiated settlement among the stakeholders as it has been doing in the past, or withdraw, secure its borders and let the warring factions settle it amongst themselves, or implement measures in such manner that all the parties are pressured to sitting around a table till they have reached a settlement. Going by a process of elimination, allowing the stakeholders to settle it among themselves will be a non-starter and, therefore, not an option. Maybe, pursuing the third option would be better than being content with the first one which Pakistan has tried over a considerable period of time without much tangible success. So, how could meaningful pressure be exerted on the parties to secure a balanced peace deal?
That is where the regional countries can play a key role. The Chinese, Russians, Central Asian Republics, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan can jointly exert pressure on the warring parties to ensure that they become amenable to clinching a mutually acceptable solution to the raging conflict. This pressure could be incentivised by an undertaking of economic support in the reconstruction of Afghanistan once the peace deal is signed.
Such a strategy has become even more important in the light of the statement by the Taliban spokesperson that, for the sake of peace, Ashraf Ghani will have to quit. In such an event, they have also promised their support to a negotiated settlement with all other stakeholders. This brings the focus back on the Ghani triumvirate: are they desperately stuck with clinging on to power irrespective of the consequences for the state and the people, or will they relinquish charge for peace to return to Afghanistan? That is where it rests at this juncture, and that is where it will continue to rest for a limited period of time into the future unless, of course, the Taliban go for the dreaded surge and take over the country by force. With the prospect of a negotiated settlement increasingly being pushed back by the Kabul triumvirate, the chances of a violent takeover can no longer be ruled out. Delusion inevitably breeds destruction.
