There was a general opinion, even among supporters of the Kabul regime, that it would collapse before the Taliban once US forces withdrew. Still, the speed of the Taliban advance has even caught them by surprise. One effect, perhaps inevitable, has been the apparent deadlock which has struck the Doha talks, where negotiators from neither the government nor the Taliban side know the position from which they are negotiating. The latest provincial capitals to fall, Herat and Kandahar, indicate that the time for the Kabul regime may well be limited, and the Doha talks may move quickly from being a negotiation over the future of Afghanistan to a surrender negotiation.
The fall of such important urban centres as Herat and Kandahar indicates two things. First, the increase in the geographical spread of the Taliban attacks. These had previously avoided the Taliban strongholds in south-Western Afghanistan. The latter shows that hesitation is no longer there. The fall of Herat implies a shift in emphasis from the north of the country to the north-west. Second, the Taliban do not seem unwilling now to go for larger conurbations. This has worrisome implications for those who assumed Kabul was secure for the time being. This might explain the US decision to bring in 3000 troops from Germany who will help provide security for the withdrawal of embassy staff from Kabul. Clearly, the USA is preparing for the worst, and wishes to avoid any hostage situation, as it faced in Iran in 1979.
It is perhaps not the best time to play ‘I-told-you-so’, but it is so glaring that there should have been more pressure on the Kabul government to come to a political settlement while there was still time. The Taliban negotiators now have little incentive to be purposeful, and will not, so long as there is no deadlock on the battlefield. The Kabul government’s forces have been deprived of too much, especially in terms of logistics and air support, to be able to resist the Taliban.
