“Pakistan has options”, National Security Adviser Moeed Yousaf reportedly remarked during an interview with the Financial Times. Apparently, Dr Yousaf has been quite vocal and direct during his trip to the USA. He made this statement against the backdrop of an unease in Pak-US ties with President Joe Biden so far not making a telephonic conversation with Prime Minister Imran Khan. Dr Yousaf was critical of the USA choosing to ignore Pakistani leadership.
Nonetheless, the gesture from the USA is quite clear. And the reasons behind this cold shoulder are quite obvious too.
The USA’s growing rivalry with China is one of the major irritants in the bilateral relations between Islamabad and Washington. Successive US administrations have pressured Pakistan to draw away from Chinese courtship. However, that is not an option for Islamabad.
When Imran Khan took over in 2018, there was speculation that Pakistan might be shifting policy— interest in CPEC seemed to dwindle on the Pakistani side and there were many who thought Pakistan may have succumbed to US pressure. Yet as unpredictable as Pakistan’s foreign policy has been, the one constant that has so far remained intact is the deep economic partnership with China.
As the dust cleared out, Imran Khan appeared to be in a firm and warm embrace with China— though it took some convincing reportedly by the military establishment. CPEC seems well underway— though one could still question the pace of the work.
Pakistan has wholeheartedly welcomed Chinese investment despite initial concerns over a possible debt-trap, concerns that may be real and were also echoed by the USA for its own interest. For the time being, Pakistan seems to have shrugged off such doubts or at least chosen to remain silent.
As the USA intensifies pressure on Pakistan through covert and overt means, Pakistan’s capacity to tackle the situation in a diplomatic manner is being tested to the limits. The “options” that Dr Yousaf talked about do not seem to be plenty even though Imran Khan has recently said that he is not waiting for a phone call from Biden. For a country to have a strong foreign policy, it is imperative to possess internal stability and economic strength. So far, Pakistan has plenty of ground to cover on these fronts. Presently, there are many troubled waters for the USA to go fishing in.
At best, Pakistan desires a strong and mutually beneficial partnership with China and a stable, if not too friendly relationship with the USA. At worst, Islamabad could end up being the collateral damage in the US-Chinese struggle for global economic and political mastery. This is the worst-case scenario that strategic thinkers in Rawalpindi and Islamabad may be trying to prevent.
The USA’s increasingly expanding relations with India, while aimed primarily at containing China, could cause the South Asian balance of power to shift in favor of India. Not surprisingly, Pakistanis have openly protested against the deepening strategic ties between its arch-enemy and the world’s sole superpower.
In Washington, however, Islamabad’s protests have fallen on deaf ears. Yet, if ‘divide and rule’ means anything to US strategists, the USA will not elevate India beyond a certain threshold. Pakistan will have to ensure that the threshold remains at least as low as not to hurt its own strategic interests.
For the time being, there seems to be little commonality in terms of national interests between Pakistan and the USA. The volatile situation in Afghanistan, however, is likely to draw them into tough negotiations. Both sides will demand concessions from each other. Whoever prevails in the end or whether there will be a win-win compromise, will depend a lot on Pakistan’s perception of its strategic interests and its capacity to deal with US pressure.
Despite withdrawal, the USA would not want to risk losing out in Afghanistan to a regime that is more receptive of Chinese and Russian interests. And to make that happen it needs the support of Islamabad. Will Pakistan oblige the USA or does it have better options?
The Pakistani NSA did not reveal the options Pakistan has when it comes to dealing with the USA. But it takes no wild guess to suggest that Islamabad finds itself in a difficult situation.
Any concession to the USA in return for strategic and economic support as well as US backing on international forums such as the FATF is likely to unnerve China. It may well view that as betrayal.
Given the volume of Chinese investment and that China is currently perhaps the only country that Pakistan looks up to in times of distress, Islamabad cannot afford to antagonize Beijing. The Pakistani leadership, therefore, has to make tough calculations before deciding upon any course of action. Any miscalculation could prove costly.
As the USA intensifies pressure on Pakistan through covert and overt means, Pakistan’s capacity to tackle the situation in a diplomatic manner is being tested to the limits. The “options” that Dr Yousaf talked about do not seem to be plenty even though Imran Khan has recently said that he is not waiting for a phone call from Biden.
For a country to have a strong foreign policy, it is imperative to possess internal stability and economic strength. So far, Pakistan has plenty of ground to cover on these fronts. Presently, there are many troubled waters for the USA to go fishing in.
