The fall of Kabul to the Taliban has left many political pundits flabbergasted and has also proved a huge chunk of books or research papers wrong. It has further indicated the uncertainty and ambivalence of politics. After getting control of Kabul, the Taliban are going to face multiple challenges from multiple fronts.
The first issue is about access to money and foreign funds. Taliban need money to keep the country running. Afghanistan massively depends upon foreign countries. Foreign aid contributes 20 percent to Afghanistan’s gross income. Furthermore, the USA’s move to freeze the Afghan central bank’s assets, which were equal to $9.5 billion and the suspension of the International Monetary Fund programme has exacerbated the situation. The opium trade can provide the Taliban with $300 million to $1.6 billion but $5.5 billion is required to meet the annual budget of the government. Many analysts believe China and Russia will extend the Taliban financial support. At the time when the Taliban are looking for financial assistance, China can take this as an opportunity to expand its influence to Kabul.
Taking control of Kabul was the first stage of the Taliban’s game but now managing Kabul seems a hard nut to crack. All the challenges are unavoidable, especially money-related issues, governance, recognition, and form of government. China and Russia may help the Taliban but still, they have to embark on a long journey to govern Kabul
The second issue is governance. Taliban lack the technocratic experience to govern a country. They are adept at fighting but managing state affairs, public services, and economic affairs is a different kettle of fish. Professional and well-trained people are direly required to govern the country. Some professionals have also fled the country owing to the Taliban’s takeover. Taliban are searching for capable people to govern the state institutions.
The third issue is related to different approaches in the Taliban group. Jacob N. Shapiro (A professor of politics and International Relations at Princeton University) talks about two different mindsets in the Taliban. One is an extremist mindset and the second is moderate. He contends that the military chief Mohammad Yaqoob and Jurist Abdul Hakeem are having a moderate approach, but another military leader Sirajuddin Haqqani is deemed a proponent of the extreme approach. The Supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzada has divided the control of the military between Yaqoob and Haqqani to avert clashes. Jacob thinks that the future of Afghanistan revolves around the majority inside the Taliban. If moderates take lead they will curb abuses but in the case of an extremist majority, Afghanistan can witness further economic, social, and political decay.
The fourth issue is about recognition. Taliban need recognition to get legitimacy and for achieving recognition they have to work on two important principles. First, they have to ensure an inclusive or non-monopolizing government and have to provide women and minorities with their prerogatives. Secondly, they have to ensure that Afghan soil will not be used against the USA.
The fifth challenge is akin to the form of government and constitution. Taliban will not follow the western concept of democracy. A Supreme State council might be established to make decisions and policies. This council will work under an Emir. A prominent security analyst, Muhammad Amir Rana, writes that the ‘Taliban will neither accept democracy nor a man-made constitution. The Iranian model with some amendments can be applicable’. He further says that there are two kinds of constitutions attributed to the Taliban. First is ‘Dastur Emarat Islami’ prepared at the time when the Taliban were in power in 1998. The second is ‘Manshur Emarat Islami Afghanistan’ which was leaked in 2020 but the Taliban did not accept it as a constitution. So, there is no surety about the form of government and the formation of the constitution by the Taliban.
The sixth challenge is emanating from the opponent’s forces. The recent attack on Kabul airport by IS-K has exposed the Taliban’s sense of complacency about security. IS wants its expansion around the globe. The Taliban and IS both are Sunni extremist groups, but they are not allies, rather rivals. The IS’s objective is to establish the IS Khorasan province in Afghanistan. IS and Taliban have been at war since 2015 when IS entered Afghanistan. The IS’ bid to accommodate defectors from the Taliban group is a matter of concern for the Taliban.
Mullah Mansoor Akhtar wrote to Abubakar Al-Baghdadi and told him not to recruit Taliban defectors. Some analysts are viewing the Taliban as a bulwark against IS. Some experts like Bruce Hoffman maintain that the presence of IS in Afghanistan can be a common ground for the USA and the Taliban. If the Taliban join hands with the USA against IS, then the former has to go through a dilemma.
On one hand, countering IS with the help of the USA will be beneficial for both parties but on the other hand, it can be deleterious to the Taliban’s organization. It can create a trust deficit among the members of the Taliban group because a faction of the Taliban is not ready to cooperate with the USA.
Another rising challenge is food insecurity. According to the local U.N. humanitarian coordinator, Ramiz Alkbarov, one third of the total population of the country is running short of food. This challenge can further add to Taliban’s difficulties.
Furthermore, the Panjshir Valley has appeared to be a place of resistance against the Taliban. The Panjshir Valley has a history of resistance. In the Anti-Soviet resistance in the 1980s and the anti- Taliban resistance in the 1990s, the Panjshir Valley remained dominant. Local militia members and former members of security forces have built the National Resistance Front. This NRF is working under Ahmad Massoud, the son of the famous Panjshir commander. Amrullah Saleh, the former vice-president, is also part of this resistance force. It will be premature to say anything about the fate of Panjshir due to its history on one side and the Taliban’s commitment to take control of the whole of Afghanistan on the other. The Taliban and Resistance forces are fighting and both sides have experienced heavy causalties. Conquering Panjshir is a big challenger for Taliban.
Taking control of Kabul was the first stage of the Taliban’s game but now managing Kabul seems a hard nut to crack. All the challenges are unavoidable, especially money-related issues, governance, recognition, and form of government. China and Russia may help the Taliban but still, they have to embark on a long journey to govern Kabul.
