Matters have not settled in Kabul, which is still shaken after the Taliban took it over three weeks ago, but at least the contours of a future settlement have begun to be visible. Perhaps the most salient feature is that Maulvi Abdul Ghani Bradar will indeed head the new government. While this was expected, it was by no means certain. Perhaps the first task that awaits the new government he heads will be that of forming it, which means that it has to be capable of handling the many problems that afflict the country. The very first question is how to return the airport to normal. While airlifting out refugees, its closure was perhaps understandable, but now it is not. While the airlift has stopped, there are still people who want to get out. This has created issues of border control that will need governmental action promptly.
Then there is the prospect of government financing. There is the related development of growing ties with China. Pakistan’s establishment has always offended a proud people with an overbearing attitude that has rubbed Afghan governments the wrong way. A strict policy of non-interference must be followed, and Pakistan must be doubly careful if the new Afghan government aligns with China. A coincidence of strategic alignment, or a coincidence of views, should not be a cause of the kind of quasi-colonialism that has rubbed so many Afghans the wrong way in the past. It is perhaps no coincidence that there seems to be more triumphalism about the Taliban victory in certain Pakistani circles than among the Taliban themselves. This is unhealthy, and cannot have any good result.
It is essential at this point for all stakeholders to realize how crucial will be a peaceful, stable Afghanistan, whose government can enforce its writ, to enforce security of movement within its territory. That is a goal which must be met if not just Afghanistan, but also its neighbours, are to enjoy a peace dividend. It should also not be forgotten that its precisely this degree of control that China needs from Afghanistan, if its One Belt One Road initiative is to enjoy success.
