The Taliban are exactly where they were two decades ago. On the 15 August, Taliban fighters entered Kabul. President Ashraf Ghani escaped the country with his ministers. The USA’s nation-building project seems to have fizzled out. The Taliban have taken control of Afghanistan’s capital, completing their lightning assault throughout the country either via violence or fear. The Taliban gained steady military successes especially after US forces left Bagram base. The Taliban have taken over Afghanistan so fast that even US intelligence didn’t expect it.
According to The Guardian “Press accounts of White House decision-making in recent days have suggested that POTUS was led to believe that it might take 18 months for Kabul and Ghani’s government to fall. Last week, unnamed C.I.A officials were widely quoted as saying it could be 70 to 90 days.”
What was predicted to take 90 days instead occurred within weeks. On Wednesday, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen Mark Milley, told reporters: “There was nothing that I or anyone else saw that indicated a collapse of this army or this government in 11 days.”
After the Taliban seized control of Kabul, Pakistan was very jubilant about it, particularly the conservatives, because most of them sympathized with the Taliban’s sharia religious ideology, whereas others considered it a vital asset to counter India in the region.
According to Western media, this is a victory for Pakistan’s military establishment, and Pakistan has gotten exactly what it wanted. However, I believe Pakistani authorities did not want the Taliban to have total control of Kabul. Islamabad wanted to topple the pro-India Ghani government, but they were concerned around the Taliban seizing control of Kabul and setting up an Islamic emirate, In order to moderate the Taliban’s dominance, Islamabad wanted to thrust them toward a power sharing arrangement with the political powers of Afghanistan.
The Pakistani PM said in Parliament that the country would not give any base to the USA. But if things get worse and the Taliban refuse to moderate themselves and begin to allow other extremist movements to take root on Afghan soil again, the pressure will again be on Pakistan from the West, especially from the USA, for bases in Pakistan. Pakistan cannot go completely against the USA due to the IMF, and Pakistan being already on the FATF’s grey list, from which it might be moved to the black list.
The Taliban’s victory will have an equal negative effect on Pakistan’s domestic peace and security. Some of these worst nightmares of Taliban regime for Pakistan can be devastating
Regrouping of TTP: The Taliban in Afghanistan helped inspire the deadly Tehrik Taliban Pakistan. The Taliban regime in Afghanistan is certainly going to strengthen the TTP in Pakistan.
Moments after taking charge in Kabul, the Afghan Taliban released around 2300 fighters and leaders of the TTP from Afghanistan detentio facilities, despite Taliban Political office spokesperson Sohail Shaheen’s assurance of not allowing Afghan soil to be used against any country. The TTP is still targeting Pakistani forces even after the Afghan Taliban’s takeover of Kabul. The militant group claimed that it targeted Pakistani troops with a “bomb attack” in South Waziristan on Monday.
Movements for Islamic Sharia law: The majority of Pakistan’s population is conservative. And there are a number of groups that desire an Islamic emirate in Pakistan; TTP is one of them. With the Taliban’s triumph, they all will receive a major ideological boost. Now that the Islamic emirate’s next door will serve as a model for those groups, they will be able to benefit from it and get support. For Pakistan’s policymakers, this is indeed a concerning scenario. At least they do not wish for an Islamic emirate in Pakistan.
There are several groups in Pakistan that aim to implement Islamic sharia law. They were hidden for many years, but now after the Taliban has taken power in Afghanistan, these groups will be going on the forefront and they could get support, as more and more people could join them as their ideological organization wins the battle in Afghanistan. Also, they can support the TTP, whose objective is the same Sharia rule in Pakistan.
Sanctions on Pakistan: US President Joe Biden is already facing a lot of criticism for the collapse of the US-backed government and army. In the coming days, this frustration will undoubtedly be directed towards Pakistan, Pakistan’s military establishment, which many in the USA see as the main reason for Washington’s failures in Afghanistan. “Former CIA Director General David Petraeus told NPR earlier this month that a resurgence of the Taliban wouldn’t have been possible without the militant group’s main benefactor Pakistan”.
There is a chance that the Biden Administration may impose sanctions on Pakistan to divert severe criticism as a result of their own failings in Afghanistan.
The pressure of US to DO MORE: The Taliban of the past were infamous for basic human rights violations such as denying women access to school, carrying out public executions of opponents, persecuting minorities and so on. Pakistan’s worst nightmare situation would be to be trapped between an uncontrolled Taliban and international pressure. Because Islamabad has good relations with Taliban leaders, Pakistan may act as a bridge between the international community and Kabul’s Taliban regime. The international community is going to put pressure on Pakistan to force the Taliban to modernize their laws.
US Bases: The CIA’s dependence on Pakistan’s security apparatus for surveillance and intelligence through its embassy in Islamabad, is likely to rise. To prevent Afghanistan from becoming a hub for transnational terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda, the Biden Administration is keen on using Pakistani air bases to maintain regional counterterrorism capabilities.
The Pakistani PM said in Parliament that the country would not give any base to the USA. But if things get worse and the Taliban refuse to moderate themselves and begin to allow other extremist movements to take root on Afghan soil again, the pressure will again be on Pakistan from the West, especially from the USA, for bases in Pakistan. Pakistan cannot go completely against the USA due to the IMF, and Pakistan being already on the FATF’s grey list, from which it might be moved to the black list.
Influx of Refugees: Afghanistan is a country in which each region has its own warlords. The Taliban are in discussions with all warlords, but the difficulty for the Taliban is in Panjshir province, where the anti-Taliban movement Northern Alliance, which is primarily Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara ethnicity. The Taliban were largely of Pashtun ethnicity. In May, Northern alliance leader Ahmad Massoud told reporters that over 100,000 militia leaders, fighters, and other stakeholders in northern Afghanistan have pledged support to his anti-Taliban movement.
Both groups were in discussions, but the talks failed, and now the Taliban is now attacking the Northern Alliance. Pakistan must intervene between the Northern Alliance and the Taliban, or any other rebel factions, because if they fight, Afghanistan would be thrown into a new civil war. Continued instability and greater bloodshed in Afghanistan might have major consequences for Pakistan including a significant influx of refugees about which Pakistan already said that they do not have further space to accommodate more refugees from Afghanistan.
