The aftermath of The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan following a two decade-long gruelling tug of war with the US, the emergence of a transposed state among the fray raises pertinent questions about the new forces in power and their potential for legitimacy. Nevertheless, the Taliban have now announced their government and they are once again in charge of affairs in Kabul.
The previous Taliban rule met widespread disapproval in terms of its harsh policies such as the exclusion of women from education, public life and employment, the implementation of capital punishments and the destruction of artistic relics, all of which baffled the world. Now once again, the Taliban as a government have formally taken over ruling affairs of the country on September 11. They are viewed as a force different and changed from what they were in the 1990s. Are they changed enough to run a government as well?
The Taliban initially assured the world that they would respect the rights of women, include minorities and uphold human rights, implying they would not repeat past mistakes of hosting terror groups and exercise moderation as opposed to the strict Islamic rule in the 1990s. The major question of recognition and legitimacy however is larger and still rests on how this Taliban rule will go forward and whether they possess the bandwidth to run a state on their own without having to depend on outside powers or harsher tactics.
The Taliban’s quick-fire takeover sans backing of world powers has reaped significant disadvantages for them, with both the IMF and World Bank already having halted aid already, indicating the attitude of the West. The question arises of how they will be able to carry this out the affairs of government, apart from international donations. Afghanistan’s government was funded by international donors until now, without which Afghanistan faces serious economic collapse. Although there are assurances from the Western and regional powers that they will not entirely pull the plug on funding, they are seemingly not engaging enough.
Evacuations that took place are also another challenge for this government. Those evacuated from Afghanistan consist of Afghans working for the previous government and employees of foreign aid companies and more people are seeking to evacuate. The Taliban are known for deterring lawlessness through harsh means but experts are needed to run bureaucratic affairs of government. However it could be argued that the group is capable of having a system for allocating authority and responsibility? Still sufficient funds and skilled workforce are needed to run public services, the availability of which look scant until now.
There are an abundance of possibilities ahead for this government. There are many concerns still from the international community ranging from inclusion of minorities, to respect for human rights to the need to suppress Afghanistan from fostering terrorist activity. There may be possibility of some states tacitly engaging with the Taliban rather than expressly stating recognition and using recognition as a foreign policy tool in order to make the new regime subject to international legal obligations. Their legitimacy is debatable but their intention to stay in power isn’t. It isn’t just the Taliban who have to move with the world. It looks like it is also the world that will have to move with the Taliban
Another major question that arises with this new government is whether this new government is acceptable under international law and will it be able to carry out its functions as such? Their engagement with world powers during the peace process at Doha and afterwards, show their capacity to do so. But states tend to practice considerable discretion when it comes to recognition as there is a difference between engagement and recognition. This is the reason why the formation of the new government was met with rejection by the world powers. The continued presence of many Taliban leaders on the UN’s designated terrorist list is another challenge for this new Afghan government on international forums. Most of the world powers have been very cautious so far to look at how the Taliban conduct themselves going forward.
The world is still wary of the group and its puritanical ways and more prominently its history of hosting terror groups. Afghanistan has been a hub for such organisations operating in this hinterland. This is a major concern of the Western powers as well as the regional powers. Pakistan expressed its expectation of the new Taliban rule by demanding an action against the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan. Similarly, China, Russia, Iran and other powers are also asking for backdoor assurances before fully engaging with them. Any of these groups can complicate the relations of this new government with its neighbours or world powers. The Taliban of today would have to be the antithesis of its past counterpart and walk a tightrope.
There are an abundance of possibilities ahead for this government. There are many concerns still from the international community ranging from inclusion of minorities, to respect for human rights to the need to suppress Afghanistan from fostering terrorist activity. There may be possibility of some states tacitly engaging with the Taliban rather than expressly stating recognition and using recognition as a foreign policy tool in order to make the new regime subject to international legal obligations. Their legitimacy is debatable but their intention to stay in power isn’t. It isn’t just the Taliban who have to move with the world. It looks like it is also the world that will have to move with the Taliban.
