The revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and the formation of AUKUS as a new pact, entails a rapid geostrategic shift in the contemporary geopolitical structure. The USA’s strategic repositioning from the war on terrorism and counter-insurgency campaigns in the Middle East and Afghanistan to a deeper strategic engagement in the Indo-Pacific region make a good strategic sense to deal with rising China. In recent years, the USA along with its Quad partners has become closer and has emerged as the weightiest democratic bulwark against China’s growing power.
The purpose and nature of Quad as a democratic partnership is still evolving. It was initially formulated by the US, Australia, Japan, and India as an informal relief group to cope with natural calamities and humanitarian assistance in the Indo-Pacific region. But in the last decade, it has been strengthening as a countermeasure to emerging threats taking place in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Among these common challenges, the rise of China is at the forefront of their strategic partnership.
The Quad strategic partnership has had peaks and valleys in history owing to the dynamic nature of global politics and the varying interests of the member states. The group emerged in 2004, lost its momentum since 2007, and then revitalized in 2017. In 2004, it appeared for the first time as an informal consultative group after the Asian earthquake and Tsunami which hit the Indo-Pacific region. Consequently, India, Japan, Australia with the supervision of the USA formed the ‘Tsunami Core Group’ for post-disaster humanitarian assistance and developmental aid. This version till 2008 was an ad hoc consultative platform. Shinzo Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan, played a leading role. In August 2007, Abe delivered a speech ‘confluence of the Two Seas’ at the Indian Parliament, connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans into a single strategic system because of the growing economic and strategic connectivity of the region.The Quad formally gets its name in the first exploratory meeting on May 2007 during a high-level meeting of the ASEAN held in Manila. Furthermore, the strategic relations among the Quad members strengthened in September 2007, when they started a series of naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal, known as the ‘Malabar Exercise’. Then, the Quad security dialogue faltered because of two major events. First, Shinzo Abe was replaced by Yasuo Fukuda as the newly elected PM of Japan, who initiated a period of good relations with China. Secondly, Australia under new PM Kevin Rudd indicated that the group would no longer serve its national interest. As a result, the Quad became suspended.
Finally, after a long time of its delay, the group revived in 2017. The revised version of the group is named ‘Quad 2.0’ and holds a broad vision for a ‘free, open, inclusive, multilateral, resilient and rules-based Indo-Pacific region.’ However, the resurgence of Quad after an unproductive start since 2007, has been motivated by the strategic threats coming from the rise of Chinese economic and military power across the region. As of 2021, all Quad leaders are becoming more aligned in their common interests and shared concerns arising from the Indo-Pacific region, especially from China. In March 2021, the US President organized a virtual meeting of Quad, attended by the leaders from India, Australia, and Japan.
Hence, for Quad to become an active and constructive alliance system, it needs to offer a multidimensional approach towards common challenges in the Indo-Pacific region. It is highly required, if Quad is serious about the regional balance of power, that it should propose an alternative to Chinese economic diplomacy. In contemporary world politics, nations are more independent in their policies than during the Cold war. Today, economic advantage matters more than the ideological blocs
The joint statement of the summit, “Spirit of the Quad”, held a broader vision of an inclusive Indo-Pacific and documented that “the four countries “bring diverse perspectives and are united in a shared vision for the free and open Indo-Pacific.” Furthermore, the statement also proclaimed the formation of three groups, within the framework of the Quad, which comprise the Vaccine Expert Group, the Critical and Emerging Technology Working Group, and the Climate Working Group.
There are numerous shared strategic concerns of the member states leading towards the rejuvenation of the Quad. The core areas of convergence in the Indo-Pacific region consist of: freedom of navigation and security of sea lines of communications, a rules-based international order based on liberal values and inclusivity, joint initiatives dealing with maritime security and development of like-minded nations, cooperation to identify common challenges like cyber threats, climate change, and natural calamities. But what really unites the Quad members is the spectre of China’s expanding economic, military, and strategic ambitions throughout the region.
On the contrary, China has quite opposed the revitalization of the Quad. She interprets the Quad through the strategic lens of ‘Wei Qi’, which means encirclement strategy, and called the initiative a ‘cold war mentality’. Immediately after of the Quad’s March Summit, the Chinese Foreign Ministry asserted,“ it is hundred percent outdated and we hope relevant countries will refrain from forming closed and exclusive cliques.” For China’s government officials and analysts, the Quad security dialogue solely deals with the security dimension and the economic spectrum is missing that will lead the partnership into decline soon. However, the failure or success of this security dialogue depends upon China’s convincing power on how Beijing will unite and integrate the regional countries under the umbrella of its mega initiative.
Besides that, there is a general perception among strategic and security analysts that the Quad will not be productive owing to certain challenges and misunderstandings among member states. First, there is a massive demand for burden-sharing of the USA from the Quad members. But these countries do not want to succumb to certain bloc politics in which the cost is higher than the benefits. Secondly, Quad doesn’t have a clearly defined vision in the region, and still ambiguities exist among member states. Thirdly, Japan, Australia, and India have their national identities and are seeking to play a more active role as independent regional players. As important stakeholders concerning their economic and military capabilities, they don’t want to be characterized as mere buck-catchers. Finally, the economic factor is missing throughout the scenario.
Similarly, in the first in-person meeting of Quad on September 2021 held in Washington DC, leaders from the member states collectively agreed upon,“We stand for the rule of law, freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, democratic values, and territorial integrity of states.” While China was not mentioned as a direct strategic threat to their interests, but they insisted on a rules-based regional order where China is strengthening its economic and military muscles.
Hence, for Quad to become an active and constructive alliance system, it needs to offer a multidimensional approach towards common challenges in the Indo-Pacific region. It is highly required, if Quad is serious about the regional balance of power, that it should propose an alternative to Chinese economic diplomacy. In contemporary world politics, nations are more independent in their policies than during the Cold war. Today, economic advantage matters more than the ideological blocs.
Similarly, AUKUS as a trilateral security pact between the US, Australia, and the UK created controversies across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. This hub-and-spoke alliance system of the USA will broaden the strategic gap between the Quad partners. As Indian Foreign Secretary Shri Harsh stated, “this trilateral security partnership is neither relevant to the Quad nor will it have any impact on its functioning.”
