Last month, an unexpected development emerged in the headlines, indicating that Pakistani officials have initiated a peace process with the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan. Prime Minister Imran Khan later verified this in an interview with TRT. Last Monday, Pakistani Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry said that the TTP, and the Pakistani government had agreed to a month-long ceasefire agreement.
The agreement will expire on December 9, TTP spokesman Muhammad Khurasani said.
A spokesman for the TTP confirmed that it has agreed to a one-month ceasefire with the government starting November 9 and that talks between the two sides are continuing.
“It is necessary that both sides observe the cease-fire,” said Mohammad Khorasani. He added that the Afghan Taliban “is filling the role of a mediator” in the current negotiations process.”
In a separate interview with the BBC’s Amir Khan, Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Maulvi Muttaki stated that they are mediating between Pakistan and the TTP. He further stated that the Afghan Taliban had stepped in at the “request” of both parties.
“No final agreement has been reached; however, the start has been very good, and in the first part of the [talks] there has been an agreement on a one-month ceasefire,” said Muttaqi.
ISKP is already a significant threat to the Afghan Taliban, and they would never want to strengthen them by attacking the TTP. Negotiations and a settlement between Pakistan and the Taliban are therefore the only safe option for the Afghan Taliban. This is why these talks have been arranged by the Afghan Taliban.
“Both sides agreed that talks will remain ongoing.”
Although Pakistan’s Security forces’ Multiple Operations has decreased terrorism for several years, after the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan has given a new perceptive to the TTP which resulted in an increase in TTP strikes on security personnel who were killed or injured as a result of the attacks.
According to data compiled by the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), an Islamabad-based research organization, the TTP carried out 95 attacks in 2020, killing 140 people. In 2021, it carried out 44 attacks in the first six months of the year. From July, however, coinciding with the resurgence of the Taliban towards Kabul, the TTP increased their activity. From July until September, the group carried out another 44 attacks, claiming 73 lives, more than 90 percent of whom were Pakistan military personnel.
Imran Khan has always had a narrative against the wars in Pakistan; he has always said, “These are our own people, talk to them,” which he has been repeating for the past 20 years. However, the Pakistani military may be skeptical about the outcome of these discussions and how long any peace agreements will last.
Since the TTP’s formation in 2007, Islamabad has struck peace agreements with several groups. However, none of the agreements have been sustained, and most of them have been followed by an outbreak of violence. The TTP has made several demands, including the right to open a political office in a third country, the reversal of the Federal Administered Tribal Areas’ merger with Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, and the introduction of an Islamic system in Pakistan. Pakistan will not accept these demands at any level. So this truce isn’t going to last very long, and there’s a slim likelihood that these discussions will lead to a real breakthrough sooner or later.
Pakistan is likely to be pushed by the Afghan Taliban for these talks. They are a major actor in these discussions. They have a lot riding on these discussions, and they may have a lot more at stake than Pakistan and the TTP. The question now is why the Afghan Taliban are more averse to these talks than both parties.
At this time, Pakistan is one of their main key allies. Although Pakistan didn’t recognize their government, Afghanistan’s foreign minister paid his first visit to the country. Pakistan is also lobbying for them on the global stage. Prime Minister Imran Khan has urged the international community to engage the Taliban administration and unfreeze Afghanistan’s foreign exchange reserves. Pakistan can also assist them in establishing their government’s credibility on the international stage. At this moment, the Afghan Taliban would not want to sour relations with Pakistan at any cost.
The one thing that can sour this relationship is the TTP. Pakistan is putting pressure on the Taliban to take action against TTP. They will sour their relations with Pakistan if they do not take action against the TTP, but it is also a test case for them if they can effectively negotiate between the Pakistani government and the TTP. By demonstrating the Taliban leaders’ capacity to prevent cross-border terrorism, it could help establish the credibility of the transitional government in Kabul and relieve some regional security fears.
Now, if they take action against TTP, there will be terrible consequences. To begin with, there would be an internal conflict among the Afghan Taliban, as there would be opinions about how to take action against the same ideological group, who did nothing wrong but desired Sharia in an Islamic country. Second, if they begin taking action againstthe TTP, this will be a major problem for them. TTP militants will then join ISKP, as they did previously when Pakistani military operations against TTP resulted in the majority of TTP fighters joining ISKP in Afghanistan.
ISKP is already a significant threat to the Afghan Taliban, and they would never want to strengthen them by attacking the TTP. Negotiations and a settlement between Pakistan and the Taliban are therefore the only safe option for the Afghan Taliban. This is why these talks have been arranged by the Afghan Taliban.
