Tug of war between NATO and Russia over Ukraine is again attracting world attention. Virtual meeting of President Putin and President Biden summed up by White House statement that Russia will not get away as it was, at the time of Crimea’s annexation with Russia.
The Russian response in the form of the Russia-NATO Security treaty on 17th December 2021 alarms that if NATO would continue to eastward expansion and weapons deployment in Eastern Europe, then Moscow would deploy weapons that were previously banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), which expired in 2019. The new proposed security treaty by Russia can be summed up under these points.
- No eastward expansion of NATO.
- No military cooperation with former Soviet states, including Ukraine and other countries in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia.
- Withdrawal of forces to positions NATO occupied in 1997, before the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia were members
- No deploying armed forces, heavy bombers, surface warships, or intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles outside of NATO territory.
INF Treaty was signed on December 8, 1987, by the USA and the former Soviet Union banning deployment of land-based ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers with ranges of 500–1,000 kilometers (short medium-range) and 1,000–5,500 km (intermediate-range) at their bordering areas.
Since 2014, the conflict in Eastern Ukraine is a flashpoint in the lap of Europe where over 13,000 people had been victims of constant war, 30,000 have been wounded, 1.4 million people have been displaced, and 3.4 million people are at the mercy of humanitarian aid. Since 2014, only discussions are being held and Ukraine is facing the brunt who is waiting for weapons to secure its borders. The ongoing conflict started when the Ukrainian population sat Euromaidan was a wave of demonstrations started on the night of 21 November 2013 with public protests in Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square) in Kyiv. Supporters of Euromaidan gathered to protest against the decision of the then-President Viktor Yanukovych to suspend the signing of an association agreement with the European Union and choose Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union. Then their demands expanded and the removal of Viktor Yanukovych was included while accusing Viktor Yanukovych of corruption and human rights abuses.
Just after 20 years of the signing of the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine in 2014 faced a situation in which one of the signatories, Russia occupied Crimea and got allegedly involved in patronizing separatists in Eastern Ukraine.
Within weeks, the then US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe Victoria Nuland reached Kyiv and personally attended protests. She had been attending breakfasts with protestors and had been filmed while distributing sandwiches among protestors. Her leaked telephone call with the then US Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt was enough to accuse the US for meddling with domestic politics of Ukraine, in which she said that Klitschko (one of the Ukrainian politicians) should not be in the future government, and expressed her preference for Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who became interim Prime Minister. She used abusive language in her call for EU and then German chancellor Angela Merkel took serious notice “calling her comments about EU “completely unacceptable”.
Heavy causalities and loss of Crimea compelled Ukraine to look at the world powers and the then German Chancellor Angela Merkel played a pivotal role for peace talks. An agreement was drawn up by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which consisted of representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). The group was established in June 2014 as a way to facilitate dialogue between stakeholders. Meetings of the group took place on 31 July, 26 August, 1 September, and 5 September 2014 but fighting in Eastern Ukraine continued. On February 12, 2015, leaders from France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia (the ‘Normandy Four’) sat together for reaching an agreement on a new ceasefire and a package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreement. Nothing is changed since then and fighting continues and Ukraine has become a burning spot for Europe.
Unluckily, Ukraine is a victim of trusting superpowers for its security because it voluntarily withdrew weapons of deterrence under the guarantees and sureties that the United States, United Kingdom, and Russia would help Ukraine if anybody would try to harm Ukrainian sovereignty. These guarantees and sureties were provided to Ukraine under Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine at the time of its independence had 1,700 nuclear warheads including 130 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) with six warheads each and 33 heavy bombers having the capacity of carrying nuclear warheads and now this country is looking at others for its security and survival.
In 1994, Ukraine withdrew nuclear arsenals under the Budapest Memorandum” for accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear (NPT) Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon State.
Kyiv after signing this document felt secure that the world powers had assured its security by signing the Budapest Memorandum that reaffirmed respect for the independence and sovereignty of existing borders of Ukraine and signatories reiterated their obligation to refrain from using force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.
Just after 20 years of the signing of the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine in 2014 faced a situation in which one of the signatories, Russia occupied Crimea and got allegedly involved in patronizing separatists in Eastern Ukraine. In response, Ukraine sought help from all the signatories to protect its borders from the alleged aggression of Russia. When Kyiv was in trouble then the world came to know that Budapest Memorandum was a nonbinding document. The only specific obligation of the US, Russia, and the UK was that they “will consult in the event if a situation arises against Ukraine. The Memorandum has no clauses that set out the procedure of convening and conducting such consultations, making and implementing decisions, or explaining the nature of sanctions against the offender. Furthermore, the Memorandum uses the term “security assurances” which is far weaker than “security guarantees”.
Ukraine is a significant example for those who believe that nuclear capability is not a deterrence and who believe that sovereignty and independence can be achieved and secured through dialogue without being ready to respond enemy with force. It also gives a lesson that promises cannot protect any nation but military strength can.
Chinese philosopher and writer of one of the best manuals of warfare, Sun Tzu writes in “Art of War”, that be ready with your horse and sword and never think you can at peace by asking someone to protect your lands.
