Ex-PM Nawaz Sharif’s return to Pakistan is at the moment merely being talked about, but even that is enough to cause jitters in the ruling PTI. The primary reason is that the talk is seen as not being without substance; that it is occurring at all means that something is cooking. What exactly, PTI supporters cannot tell, but the suspicion is that it is their goose. Indeed, the PTI supporters would be right, for Mian Nawaz’s return would only mean that those who had backed Imran have realized their mistake, and that the PTI government will not make a turnaround in the 20 months or so it has left, and will only bring more obloquy down on those who brought it to power. In short, the PTI will be bereft of anything ‘extra’, while fresh elections will be held.
Mian Nawaz’s return before the next election is essential. He seems now to have completed his medical treatment, and to be able to travel. Perhaps more important, he needs to return if he is to remain relevant in the country’s politics. However, he will also have to be careful about whether or not he will be thrown behind bars as soon as he sets foot on Pakistani soil. It is true that he will not return unless given the green light by those who gave him the green light to leave in the first place. Then, the PTI could do little but complain that he was not at all as ill as was claimed, but this time, they might still clap him in irons.
The PTI can argue that it is still a potent political force. While there is much being made of its defeat in the KP local body elections, it can be seen as a proof of the PTI’s ability to garner the support of a proportion of the electorate, even though it did not have the sort of support it had in previous elections.
However, the PTI should note that it itself has driven its backers to dicker with Mian Nawaz, if that is what they are doing, because of its poor record of governance. The PTI is veering dangerously close to the argument that it would have been a good administrator if only it had not had to show its obedience. But without such a plea, how can it argue for a second term, especially with an election disaster in Punjab local body polls early next year looming?
