While Prime Minister Khan is no more confident of the establishment’s support the PDM is still unsure if a no-confidence move would succeed against him. While there are reasons for the establishment’s estrangement from the PTI government, the former would not favour the fall of the PTI government without an alternative arrangement. The PDM knows that unless the allies abandon Imran Khan, or a sufficient number of PTI MNAs are willing to openly vote against their own government, there is little chance of the no-confidence move being successful. It suits the PTI’s coalition partners to extract as many benefits as they can from a beleaguered government. There are claims that some of the PTI members are willing to rebel in return for PML(N) tickets in Punjab which might not suit the latter. The PDM has therefore decided to move cautiously instead of launching a frontal attack in the absence of solid guarantees.
Meanwhile going for a long march on Islamabad suits both the PPP and PDM. The PPP through its tractor-trolley marches has succeeded in showing its presence in Punjab which is otherwise considered the PML(N)’s stronghold. The PDM would make its presence felt in Sindh also, besides other provinces. The bigger the opposition’s processions the greater the demoralization in the PTI’s ranks that could lead more PTI lawmakers to veer towards the opposition and openly rebel against their own leadership.
As both the PPP and PML(N) are facing pressure from the PTI government, they often stand together in Parliament. But as the two are also competitors in elections their rivalry has at times led to open confrontation, the latest example being the exit of the PPP and ANP from the PDM. Presently there is little possibility of the PPP joining the PDM. This would not however help the PTI as both the PPP and PDM are competing hard in organizing protests against the government. The PPP would put up a countrywide show of power from January 27. The PDM will work hard to put up a much bigger demonstration of public support from March 23 onwards. Even if the opposition fails to bring down the PTI government through threats of a no-confidence move or public protests, the two tactics would cause enough demoralization in the PTI ranks by the time the elections are held next year.
