Michael Laban Walzer who is an American political theorist believes that surprise is the essential feature of unconventional war (guerrilla war, terrorist attacks); thus the ambush is the classic tactic. Hybrid wars have a mix of everything that Pakistan has been fighting against for decades. The martyrdom of 10 brave soldiers of the Pakistan Army in a single terrorist attack in Balochistan last week indicates that war is yet not over rather building up further.
Media reports suggest Balochistan is again the target as it was when anti-Pakistan NDS and unfriendly Ashraf Ghani were in power in neighboring Afghanistan. In the past, Pakistan had a strong case against foreign intelligence agencies that they used Afghan soil against Pakistan. Now who to blame when Pakistan-friendly Taliban are ruling Afghanistan?
According to media reports, since August 15, 2021, terrorist attacks against Pakistan Army had increased, resulting in the martyrdom of over 35 soldiers.
Data available about blasts in Pakistan after August 15, 2021, till the last week of January 2022 indicates that 12 civilians were killed while 105 civilians got injuries.
Last December, just before the anniversary of the gruesome incident of Army Public School Peshawar, the Pakistan government said it was engaged in negotiations with terrorist outfit TTP, and negotiations were followed by a ceasefire. When a State negotiates with any terrorist outfit, it sends a message that “all is not well” and overlooking the blood of thousands of innocent persons who sacrificed their lives for their country is necessary for averting further disasters. Historically, state-level negotiations always enhance the confidence of terrorists, and that apparently also happened recently and now terrorists are engaging law enforcing agencies in Waziristan and deep into Balochistan. Prof David B. Carter of Princeton University USA believes that States always have considerable advantages in resources and capabilities over terrorists and terrorism-related tactics are often employed by groups because they are “weapons of the weak”.
Historically, state-level negotiations always enhance the confidence of terrorists, and that apparently also happened recently and now terrorists are engaging law enforcing agencies in Waziristan and deep into Balochistan.
In his study titled “Provocation and the Strategy of Terrorist and Guerilla Attacks”, Prof David further says that terrorist tactics are usually weaker than the states they target and groups strategically choose tactics in anticipation of how the state will respond. However, the balance sometimes goes in favor of terrorists when States show weakness and start negotiations.
Last October reported five incidents (October 2, 18, 20, 22, 27), resulting in the martyrdom of 10 soldiers. November had two incidents and December had three incidents. August 2021 had three incidents and the only month that had no incident was September 2021 since the Taliban took over Kabul. I do not wish to infer that the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan is linked with rising terror incidents in Pakistan but it is pertinent to observe that Pakistan cannot blame any more Afghan government as Pakistan had been blaming in past.
The Islamabad-based Think Tank Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) indicates in its report published in the first week of January that Pakistan witnessed a 56% surge in militant attacks during the year 2021 after a consistent decline in the attacks during the previous six years.
The PICSS statistics showed that the militants have carried out 294 attacks in 2021 in which 395 people were martyred, including 186 civilians and 192 security forces personnel. At least 629 people were injured, including 400 civilians and 217 security forces personnel. Security forces also killed 188 militants and arrested at least 222 suspected militants during the year, the PICSS report had added.
The year 2020 had witnessed 188 militant attacks in which 266 people were killed and 595 injured. Comparison of both the year shows that there was a 56% increase in the number of attacks, a 48% increase in the total number of deaths, and a 66% increase in the casualties of Pakistani security forces. The number of militant attacks in 2021 was the highest after 2017 in any year while the number of deaths was the highest in any year after 2018.
The government promotes Pakistan as a peaceful destination for foreigners and you can find thousands of vlogs and blogs promoting Pakistan as “Your Destination”. Such vlogs can be an individual attempt of those foreigners who loved Pakistan once they were here. However, can tourism and terrorism go side by side? Of course not. A fragile economy, almost totally dependent on lending for running the house, and rising terrorism would multiply an already grave situation because terrorism would not only harm the tourism industry but would also halt long-term investments.
Pakistan Army is doing its job with uncountable sacrifices and there is a dire need to review what we have done in reference to National Action Plan?
Historians who have been documenting “unconventional warfare” believe the State must not ignore certain social and psychological circumstances being used by anti-state elements (social faultlines) against the State. Historians suggest that while designing a strategy to win over non-state actors, the State must target the motivation of the combatants by nullifying “ideology” being used by the State. This ideology is in simple words is the “narrative” being used by anti-state elements to recruit youth. The narrative building has always been a serious problem in Pakistan because we have been changing our priorities and consider narrative as a “need based” element. From a Liberal Pakistan of the 60s to a Jihadi Pakistan of the 80s, our journey has gone through phases of moderate enlightenment of the first decade of the 21st century and so on so forth.
Building a solid narrative needs intellectual work but we try to develop narrative through statements and political moves. Steven Arthur Pinker who is a Canadian-American cognitive psychologist indicates that cognitive psychology has shown that the mind best understands facts when they are woven into a conceptual fabric, such as a narrative, mental map, or intuitive theory. Disconnected facts in the mind are like unlinked pages on the Web: They might as well not exist.
Like Steven, I also believe nothing gives life more purpose than the realization that every moment of consciousness is a precious and fragile gift. We still have time to build whatever we think is better for the country instead of keep doing experimentations.
