The re-emergence of Quad on 12 March 2021 triggered strong reactions from the regional powers that felt strategically threatened. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov strongly criticized the US-led Quad initiative, saying it would undermine ASEAN’s centrality. Lavrov already had expressed his displeasure with India, saying that “India is constantly falling prey to the constant, aggressive, sinister, unipolar, anti-China camp of the United States.”
He indirectly accused India of undermining Russian and Chinese efforts to create a multipolar world. On the other hand, China calls QUAD “losers” and it also responded that no exclusive cliques should be created. In a commentary for the South China Morning Post, Liu Zongyi, an associate research fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, argues that the Quad will create disruption in the region and a more hostile environment for China in terms of security.
China’s towering as an economic power and Russia’s strong political influence and security relations in the region are changing the strategic realities of the region. After the withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan, the region is at the mercy of China and Russia. Thus, the regional states are also thinking of remodeling their strategic policies in the region
It is very important to note that a Russian conference for peace on the future of Afghanistan took place on 18 March 2021, following the Quad Virtual Summit. Russia did not invite India as a party even though China, Pakistan and Iran were invited. Russia is believed to have dropped India because of Pakistan’s concerns and China’s attempts to control India in the South Asian region. The Moscow conference was attended by US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, Abdullah Abdullah, head of the Afghan National Reconciliation Council, and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, co-founder of the Taliban.
Pakistan and Russia have been attempting to establish concrete relations amid deteriorating regional security and shifting of geopolitical competition after the Cold War. Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov have agreed to work for the regional political settlement. Both countries have stepped up their military and economic cooperation. Russia started selling arms and ammunition to Pakistan in 2015, despite Indian concerns. Russia wants to cooperate with Pakistan in various fields of trade, defense, energy and power, railways, telecommunications and information technology. Russia has now pledged $14 billion to invest in Pakistan’s energy sector, including $2.5 billion for the North-South (TAPI) pipeline project.
Russia wants to integrate Pakistan into its proposed Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Pakistan would like Russia to join CPEC and invest in Pakistani infrastructure projects. Pakistan has already allowed Russia to use Gwadar port under CPEC. Both Pakistan and Russia intend to take their bilateral relations to a strategic level. Russian and Pakistani Special Operations Forces conducted joint military exercises in November 2020 at the Tarbela Training Ground in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province as part of the “Friendship 2020 Exercise”. Along with Chinese and Iranian assets, Russian warships also participated in the recently concluded 45-nation AMAN-21 two-year naval exercises hosted by Pakistan in the Arabian Sea on 16 February 2021.
On the other hand, China is a real strategic partner and like-minded friend of Pakistan. Their cooperation in the international arena will have a lasting impact on the global and regional situation. The two countries also called for a special UNSC summit of the P5 countries to establish direct talks on ways to address the common problems of mankind in the interest of maintaining global stability. Both the countries remain iron brothers and “all-weather” allies. China also has facilitated missile technology, weapons design horizontally, and the JF-17 Thunder to develop infrastructure.
The rise of India as an Asian power affected Pakistan’s perceptions of cooperation with the USA and role as a frontline state in the War on Terror in Afghanistan. Initially, Pakistan believed that it was playing a significant role for the USA in Afghanistan, but over time it became clear that the larger US targets had little room to accommodate Pakistan’s strategic interests. Pakistan became convinced that the Western powers preferred Indian domination as a model of stability, rather than a balance of power and a solution to the complex nature of the Pak-India conflict. With this premise, Islamabad began to come closer to Russia and China. Pakistan’s and India’s membership in the SCO has allowed Pakistan to have a forum in which to expand its strategic and economic interests and balance India’s efforts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically. However, with the increasing geopolitical importance, especially when China’s BRI introduced CPEC as its flagship project, Pakistan’s geographical location has gained new geopolitical importance.
In the wake of the crises in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, Moscow has moved closer to Beijing following US sanctions on Russia and has extended its interests to Southwest and South Asia. Russia is now in a delicate balance of relations with South Asian countries. From Russia’s point of view, Afghanistan’s future has a significant impact on Russian security interests in the southern vector. Russia has also found a significant market for defense sales and cooperation in South Asia. Both Islamabad and New Delhi are frustrated with Russian politics but both the countries are looking for good relations with Russia. Russia’s sale of the S-400 system to India has created worries for Pakistan. On the other hand, New Delhi is disappointed that Indian strategic partner Russia is now forging new defense ties with its traditional rivalm Pakistan.
President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have a good reason to strengthen their cooperation and partnership. China and Russia have been described by the USA as geopolitical rivals. It would be better for both the countries to work more closely on issues of strategic and economic benefit. The leaderships of China and Russia have expressed a desire for more dialogue when they held a virtual meeting and promised to hold private talks on the sidelines of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February. Better relations are inevitable when Washington presents them as a threat to global order and stability and seeks to isolate them.
US President Joe Biden is leading a diplomatic boycott of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, using alleged human rights abuses as an excuse. Therefore, Putin may be the first leader who accepted the Games invitation. Russia’s presence would therefore be a sign of its good relations with China, but since it will be the first foreign dignitary to meet Xi face-to-face in more than a year, it is even more important.
In the midst of the covid-19 epidemic, the USA and some Western countries have imposed sanctions on Chinese and Russian companies, institutions and individuals, threatening additional measures and criticizing their alliance and unity. China and Russia have several common strategic and geopolitical interests. They are committed to uphold a multilateral and UN-based system, from the perspective of equality.
China’s towering as an economic power and Russia’s strong political influence and security relations in the region are changing the strategic realities of the region. After the withdrawal of the USA from Afghanistan, the region is at the mercy of China and Russia. Thus, the regional states are also thinking of remodeling their strategic policies in the region.
