There are seven Indian states (Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Goa, Manipur, and Uttarakhand) which are heading for assembly polls soon. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is sanguine that it would bag 300-plus seats in the 403-seat Uttar Pradesh State assembly. The party’s optimism stems from a number of factors. They include the appeal from sloganeering, “allure” of freebies, and monopoly of the “fearful Muslim vote bank”.
With a population of 204.2 million, Uttar Pradesh is the most populous state in the Indian Union. Hindus constitute 79.7 percent of the state’s population and Muslims 19.3 per cent. The Muslim community numbers over 38,483,967, the largest among the Indian states.
The BJP won the previous elections riding a wave of slogans and Narendra Modi’s charisma as a strong man who could carry out so-called surgical strikes within Pakistan. Or see eyeball-to-eyeball to China. The BJP banks on the hope that the voter does not measure the performance of an incumbent strictly on the basis of scientific parameters.
At least six BJP’s stalwarts have left the party. But, only the hustings would tell whether Modi’s magic is waning or not. The last elections were a debacle for the Congress in the UP. Even Rahul Gandhi lost its citadel, Amethi. Yet, it is wrong to perceive Congress as just a dynasty. It embodies an ideology of secularism, socialism and pluralism. It could still throw up a surprise in the coming state assembly elections. Several factors account for Congress’s debacle: less money, poor slogans, weak leaders, infighting, missing alliances, and lack of RSS-like foot soldiers. Modi’s self-image brand prevailed.
The RSS held many conclaves to reach out to intellectuals. Muslim Manch, distributed RSS leaflets. Even after winning the elections, BJP stalwarts visited Madrassa Deoband. Modi captivated popular imagination as a strong leader: Modi hai to mumkin hai (If Modi is there, then it’s possible). Modi brazenly bagged credit for all achievements of previous Congress governments. Yet the fact remains that it was Jawaharlal Nehru who abolished the zamindari (feudal) system. It is Nehru, not Modi, who set up the space centre that catapulted India’s ASAT Shakti.
The parties also promise exotic freebies to voters, ranging from hard cash to electric scooters to mobile phones, laptops, gas cylinders, free electricity, cooking vessels, cycles, mixer-grinders, government jobs, or even gold jewellery for daughters’ marriages.
In the last assembly elections, the BJP offered free robots to homemakers to help in their chores, three-story houses with a swimming pool for everyone, a mini-helicopter, 100 gold sovereigns to women for their marriage, a boat for every family, and $50,000 to youths to start business ventures.
The BJP’s bonanza for UP this time includes a cash transfer of $30 to Indian farmers per month; $800 million to self-help groups empowering women; $15 sent to primary school students’ families for buying school gear, and $30 per month to 1 million girls.
Surveys reflect that the BJP’s expectations may not be outrightly outlandish; yet, a discernible change in the Congress’s strategy may strengthen their winning tally. It is the nouveau appeal to the women’s vote bank. Emerging coalitions also may alter the scenario. Akhilesh Yadav is forging alliances with smaller parties to widen his support base beyond the Yadavs and the Muslim
Various political parties had paid only lip service to women until now. The Congress has now pledged 40 percent of its candidates will be women. The congress now draws inspiration from West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee and former UP CM Mayawati.
Congress won just seven seats in the last state polls . The Congress women are diverse. Sadaf Jafar, the actress jailed for her role in anti-CAB demonstrations is now a spokeswoman. Another candidate, Poonam Pandey, led a protest for wages by women frontline anti-covid-19 vaccinators.
The Congress women have a catchy slogan “I’m a girl and I can fight” To attract female voters, the Congress has released a separate “women only” manifesto offering smart phones and electric two-wheelers to girls, a rise in the amount of monthly pension for widows/senior citizens as well as free bus travel within the state for them.
In 2014 Yogi Adityanath authored an article that affords a peek into dark recesses of his mind, entitled matrushakti bhartiya sanskriti ke sandarbh mein (power of the mother figure in the context of Indian culture).He says, ‘Shastras (scriptures) have talked about giving protection to women. Just like urja (energy) left free and unchecked causes destruction women also do not need independence, they need protection. Their energy should be channelized to be used productively’. He added, ‘Stree shakti (women power) is protected by the father when a child, by the husband when an adult, and by the son in old age. If the woman adopts the qualities of men, that of bravery (shaurya) or masculinity (purush arth), then she becomes a devil (rakshasa).
In disregard of India’s Freedom of Religions Act, Adityanath abhors inter-caste and inter faith marriages. Anti-Romeo squads in connivance with police discourage such marriages. The legislation is used to harass the Muslim community and institute false cases against them.
Most converts are –reconverted through trickery or social pressure.
His supporters have called for digging up Muslim women from their graves and raping them. In 2015, he said that if he was given the chance, he would install idols of Hindu gods in every mosque. In an undated video uploaded in 2014, he said, “If [Muslims] take one Hindu girl, we’ll take 100 Muslim girls. If they kill one Hindu, we’ll kill 100 Muslims.” (Nilanjana Bhowmick , Meet the militant spreading Islamophobia in India, Washington Post 24 March, 2017).
A Muslim woman from Uttar Pradesh reported, ‘We are submerged in pools of fear. The pools are deep. Unending. I cannot get out.’
Both Modi and Adityanath are deeply polarizing figures in Indian politics. Muslims nurture a palpable fear of persecution at the hands of the BJP’s government. Modi sloganeered ‘sab ka vishwas (everybody’s trust), but practically he has engendered a trust deficit and cynicism in the minds of Muslims by marginalising them. Modi’s former role as Chief Minister of Gujarat during the deadly riots of 2002 cast a dark shadow over his prime ministership since 2014.Instead of healing old wounds, Modi has created new fissures in the minds of Muslims, making them feel alienated and helpless. There has been a spike in vigilante attacks against Muslims accused of killing or transporting cows for slaughter or simply eating beef, chiefly in states governed by the ruling party since Modi came into power in 2014. Countless Muslims lost their livelihood for closure of abbattoirs under pressure of Hindu fanatics.
Muslims are portrayed as anti-national, terrorist, pro-Pakistan and enemies of the Hindu nation. Religious minorities including Muslims have been threatened to convert to Hinduism, text books have been revised to demonise Muslim rulers of India, and cities renamed to erase India’s past links to Muslims. The Citizenship Amendment Act and the national register of Citizenship targets Muslims, called “infliltrators” and “termites” by leading BJP leaders including Amit Shah. Appointing hard-line nationalists to key government posts, at the recommendation of the RSS, beclouds Modi’s pledge for an “inclusive India”. In 2017, Yogi Adityanath, called for India to become a Hindu state.
To avoid persecution, many Muslims joined the Muslim Manch, a wing of the RSS. Modi’s government did not rebuke calls for Muslim genocide. In a US Congressional briefing, Gregory Stanton, Genocide Watch president said on January 12, “We are warning that genocide could very well happen in India.” For Stanton, genocide is a ten-stage, non-linear process, which culminates in “extermination and denial”. The Genocide Convention, though, defines it not as a process but as acts “committed with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group”. These acts include killing, inflicting bodily harm, or preventing births.
Surveys reflect that the BJP’s expectations may not be outrightly outlandish; yet, a discernible change in the Congress’s strategy may strengthen their winning tally. It is the nouveau appeal to the women’s vote bank. Emerging coalitions also may alter the scenario. Akhilesh Yadav is forging alliances with smaller parties to widen his support base beyond the Yadavs and the Muslim.
Some nascent changes in electoral strategies indicate that BJP may find it difficult to realise its tals dream of bagging 300-plus seats in the 403 Uttar Pradesh state assembly.
