The first round of talks between Opposition leaders and major partners of the ruling alliance is over. What must have irked Prime Minister Imran Khan is that instead of outright refusal to discuss the no-confidence move, the PML(Q) and MQM leaders not only listened to the opposition but also agreed to take its plea for support to their parties’ decision making bodies. Without making any commitment, the two have asked the opposition leaders to share their future plan with the government allies. It would however provide some solace to the government that the opposition has failed to make any significant breakthrough over more than a week.
It is significant that the establishment does not appear to have given any signal to the allies who have been yoked together with the PTI by the powers that be. The government has presumably been told that unlike the past it will receive no help in sorting out its opponents, or managing Pemra, NAB and other important bodies on behalf of the government. The government will have to rely on itself as establishment becomes ‘neutral’. As long as the establishment maintains that posture, the PTI’s allies will have to take decisions on their own. The PTI government will meanwhile have no solid reason to blame the establishment for the direction the allies take.
The PPP has tried to lure the PML(Q) by promising to support Ch Pervez Elahi as the next Punjab chief minister. It might be able to plead with the PML(N) to let him hold the office for an interim period, but the PML(Q) wants the office for an entire 2023-2028 tenure. It remains to be seen if the PML(N) agrees to the proposal. The PML(N) is prepared to support the MQM on the Local Government law, but sorting out the MQM’s problems with the security agencies or persuading it to stop raising demands about the division of Sindh is beyond the PML(N)’s power.
While we are told that 22 PTI MNAs want to jump ship and whenever the crutches are removed the government will go home within 24 hours, but who will stand by the opposition when it presents a no-confidence move in the National Assembly, and risk disqualification under the defection law? It appears that the opposition will have to work harder and take longer to get the support of the ruling party’s coalition partners.
