“With the recent intensification of strategic competition between global powers, making the world peace fragile and the direction of diplomacy, unpredictable, Pakistan has made a strategic pivot from geo-politics to geo-economics,” said Shah Mahmood Qureshi while announcing major policy shift in the country’s foreign policy.
Pakistan’s foreign policy has traditionally been driven by regional and systemic development especially the global powers’ fluctuating interests in the South Asian region alongside the political and security dynamics of neighbouring India and Afghanistan. Though for the past couple of years, the country has shown visible metamorphosis, the country’s first National Security Policy has, nonetheless, officially demonstrated a paradigm shift in the state’s foreign policy with centrality on geo-economics.
What are the factors that forced Pakistan for the strategic shift? And, what will be its implications and challenges that Islamabad is likely to face while implementing its new normal? These are a few queries agitating every Pakistani’s mind!
Whereas geopolitics is related to the effects of geography on international politics; geoeconomics is linked with spatial, historical, and political aspects of economies and resources. States being central to both as unitary actors in formulating domestic and foreign policies, both the disciplines are also closely linked to strategy in defining optimal plans and states long term goals. However, geopolitics and geoeconomics bear a few fundamental differences. First, geopolitics as a discipline is associated with the neo-realist paradigm of international relations; whereas, geoeconomics is the normative heart of neoliberalism. The former is primarily concerned with political and military activities, and the latter with economic activities. With respect to variables, geopolitics is traditionally linked to slowly-changing variables– like ethnicity, country, religion, and language– and, geoeconomics is more linked to rapidly-changing variables– particularly technological change and developments in commerce.
One can also find numerous models in the contemporary and past world orders towing either of the two as the theoretical framework of their domestic and foreign policies. The USA in the contemporary world, the USA and the USSR during the Cold War, and Imperial and Nazi Germany in the pre- and post-world war eras, are all regarded as practitioners of geopolitics. Their elites’ perception was based on a combination of their political, geographical, historical, racial and economic factors which substantiated their perceived right to expand their states’ borders and sphere of influence to control other states’ land masses and natural resources.
Contrarily, China and Japan can conveniently be regarded as champions of geoeconomics of the current and the post-war eras respectively, where they applied economic tools to advance their national goals.
Ever since 1947, Pakistan’s behaviour has only been reactionary to systemic anarchy. The strategic tug-of-war between the two superpowers, the ever-looming Indian threat on its Eastern border, security and domestic dynamics of neighbouring Afghanistan and the fallout of 9/11 have been the chief drivers of our national security and foreign policy. Bartering its geostrategic value, Pakistan’s involvement as a front-line state has, nevertheless, resulted in huge losses, both of human lives and to the economy.
Would Pakistan’s geoeconomic vision help in flipping the script?
Whether or not the answer is affirmative, no one can, at least, question the rationality of the decision. This seems even logical after considering following three factors: (1) the net effect of Pakistan’s history of responding to its geopolitical compulsions; (2) the shifting of the global centre of gravity from the Atlantic to the Asia Pacific; and, (3) the success stories of EU and ASEAN contributing to internationalizing the philosophy of geoeconomics.
But rationality aside, Pakistan’s pivot toward geo-economics is likely to face many challenges! Geopolitics being a hard reality, Pakistan would not be able to remain aloof to systemic compulsions. The continuation of Indian aggressive foreign policy especially the vacillation of the Kashmir dispute; developing stories in Afghanistan, and, the emerging Sino-US neo-Cold War are amongst a few things Pakistan cannot escape. While switching over to the new priorities, the policymakers in Pakistan need to handle the following factors with extreme care.
In the years to follow, the country’s decision making machinery would be required to tackle the following hurdles in meeting its new vision.
First and foremost, our relations with India. The fundamental policy shift cannot be akin to an end to war(s) with India, nor does it mean that Pakistan’s Eastern border has ceased emanating threat. This may, however, be taken as strategic signalling in the following terms. ONE, over the past few decades– especially after 1971, Pakistan has acquired sufficient capability to maintain the regional balance of power. TWO, on a number of occasions, Islamabad has rendered New Delhi’s numeric military ascendency null and void e.g. Operation Brasstacks of 1987,the Kargil Wa of 1998, the military stand-off of 2001 and the Pulwama confrontation of 2019. And, THREE, Pakistan now requires no more band-wagoning or alliance with any global players to safeguard its territorial integrity against India.
Though, inter alia, economy is essentially the state’s top priority, the troubled relations with India, particularly the lingering Kashmir dispute, shall remain a challenge for Pakistan in accomplishment of geoeconomic goals.
Second, the Afghan factor. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan mean a lot to each other – not just in terms of their security needs, but for the economic uplift of the region as well. Pakistan is also an integral part of two energy corridors, the Iran-Pakistan (IP) and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline projects. Though both projects are linked with Pakistan’s geo-economic ambitions, they cannot be successfully accomplished without ensuring durable peace in Afghanistan and regional security
Pakistan has always played a positive role towards formation of an inclusive Afghan government in Kabul. Furthermore, Pakistan has already paid a heavy toll in GWOT and, after experiencing a bloody terrorism, is now facing a new wave of terror from the TTP based inside Afghanistan. Pakistan’s adversaries– especially archrival India– are well aware of the fact that without settling issues with TTP, Pakistan cannot ensure internal stability which is paramount to achieving its economic goal. The TTP’s links with India and opposition factions in Afghanistan are real source of concern for Imran Khan’s government.
Maintenance of perpetual peace inside and on the Afghan border shall remain the cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign policy objectives.
Third, there is the China factor with specific reference to CPEC and Sino-US rivalry for global supremacy. Pakistan’s CPEC initiated with China has now become a lifeline for the country’s economy and its geostrategic vision. As a matter of fact, as long as CPEC is not functional, Pakistan can neither accomplish its goals nor avoid dependency on the IMF.
Furthermore, in order to fetch maximum dividends, Pakistan also needs to look at CPEC beyond just being a transit trade facility. The development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs), upgradation of Gwadar port and enhancement of trade with China, needs to be accorded top priority for success of CPEC.
There are also no signs of abating in the neo-Cold War between the US and China. The Sino-US tussle bears strategic implications for Pakistan. The leadership at Islamabad needs to play its cards quite intelligently so as to remain out of the great powers’ tug-of-war. The US administration too, cannot afford to lose interest in Pakistan as they fear that it might sway towards China. Historically, Islamabad has played a bridging role between Washington and Beijing in managing their bilateral ties. In 1972, Pakistan was instrumental in arranging President Nixon’s strategic visit to China that contributed towards systemic stability and international peace. Pakistan has no other role to play in the ongoing Sino-US tensions. It is even linked with Pakistan’s desire of turning its geoeconomic vision into reality.
The formulation of National Security Policy with renowned vision, is undeniably a milestone for Pakistan, nonetheless, the first step in the right direction.
