Great power’s relations are deteriorating. The USA, China and Russia are at loggerheads over a myriad of issues which may escalate tensions and bring them eyeball-to-eyeball over regional and global flashpoints.
The twin crises— Taiwan and Ukraine— are potential war zones between the East and the West. The US interference in Taiwan’s internal affairs will furiously antagonize China; both global giants may lock their strategic horns over the Taiwan quagmire. China’s zero-tolerance Taiwan policy will bring its rivalry with the USA to the point of no return provided that Washington continues to meddle in Taiwan’s affairs.
Similarly, the expansion of NATO to encircle Russia in its western region will stock tensions between the USA and Russia. Military deployment by Russia at its western border and the USA’s quest to make Ukraine a NATO member aggravate the relations of both former traditional rivals. The more the USA tries to strategically squeeze Russia, the greater are the chances of a Russia-China alliance.
When Russia and China forge an alliance against the USA, it will terribly shatter the global balance of power. It increases the possibility of the creation of alliances and counter-alliances among world powers, compelling smaller countries to bandwagon. The world will be divided into two major blocs between the USA and China. Both powers contest to maintain their influence by expanding their geopolitical footprints across the world.
Realpolitik gains currency in the face of growing great-power rivalry. Escalating great-power tensions cause conflicts. Competition slides into confrontation. Nevertheless, realistic foreign policy may ensure stability of deterrence that repels big powers from direct confrontation as mutually assured destruction (MAD) becomes imminent. Both deterrence and crisis stability are paramount for global strategic stability as emerging new powers may change the global power structure.
The new Cold War will be over crafting the world’s technological order and restructuring the rules of the game. The crumbling existing world order provides space for establishing new international norms. The USA has, however, created a rule-based international order with capitalist economic structure and democratic political norms. But what can China offer the world if it becomes the next global superpower?
An eroding world order and waning US influence have enabled other countries to grow. China’s economic boom and technological advancement have created problems for the USA as Beijing tries to lead the world at the time Washington’s role is declining on world affairs. The USA has abjectly failed to live in the paradise of power and enjoy the luxury of the international system which it constructed after the demise of the former USSR.
There are two main factors which have emaciated the USA’s muscles. One is the internal political and social polarization accompanied with growing inequality and intolerance. The other is its engagement in ‘unwinnable’ wars across the world. The Afghanistan war trapped the USA in a deadly conflict for two decades while the rest of the world continues to grow without any impediment.
China has built an economic powerhouse that enables it to compete with the USA to be the next hegemonic power. It is obvious that the USA will attempt to retain its status as the global superpower while China tries to replace it gradually. It is hard for the USA to be the status quo power since China strives to be the potential economic and technological master of the world.
With a view to countering China, the USA has forged alliances, the Quad and the AUKUS, in the Indo-Pacific region. The US policy shift from fighting terrorism to managing great powers has brought back the great-power rivalry. The Quad and AUKUS in the Indo-Pacific against China and NATO’s expansion to Ukraine against Russia will increase great-power tensions. It makes confrontation inevitable.
The US-India-NATO nexus versus the China-Russia alliance will shift the global balance of power, creating a security dilemma for various countries. It again increases the arms race which can affect deterrence and crisis stability. A new cold war between the East and the West (not simply between two great powers) is transcontinental and can become hot if there is any strategic miscalculation. However, the USA and China are two major players in this possible Cold War II.
The flashpoints of conflict will be maritime routes and space. Both the USA and China will endeavor to play a greater role over world affairs by occupying major strategic points at ocean regions to have influence on the sea lines of communication. Space is another domain of great powers contest; it allows them to spy over the world.
The new Cold War will be over crafting the world’s technological order and restructuring the rules of the game. The crumbling existing world order provides space for establishing new international norms. The USA has, however, created a rule-based international order with capitalist economic structure and democratic political norms. But what can China offer the world if it becomes the next global superpower?
China has neither clear strategy to lead the world, nor does it have any principle for the international system. As Henry Kissinger writes in the book “On China” that “American exceptionalism is missionary. It holds that the United States has an obligation to spread its values to every part of the world. China’s exceptionalism is cultural. China does not proselytize; it does not claim that its contemporary institutions are relevant outside China.”
If China tries to replicate the previous master’s rules and norms of global system as it becomes the next global superpower, it will have to restructure its internal political system to earn legitimacy. But internal reform can disrupt the project of absoluteness of single party system, inciting a sort of domestic political upheaval. Thus, the road to global superpower for China is murky.
