Prime Minister Imran Khan is to leave for Moscow on February 23 on the first bilateral visit of a Pakistani Prime Minister there since 1999, but Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry’s claim that it will be a ‘gamechanger’ depends on whether or not the foreign ministry and its appendages have sufficiently prepped and effectively briefed Mr Khan on the visit to Russia and its significance. As Mr Khan may find himself arriving at a time when his hosts will have invaded Ukraine, he will do well to avoid deviating from the official line that Pakistan would not like to see war take place.
Mr Khan will have many other subjects to talk about without offending the USA. Perhaps the most pressing will be Afghanistan’s latest situation and how to prevent any terrorist threat from emanating from there. While Pakistan has a problem with the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan, Russia has had to deal with Chechens. They both have an immediate interest in ensuring that the Taliban control any potential terrorists. For this reason alone, the USA is watching this visit carefully. At the same time, it wants to see how far Russia is willing to go in its relations with Pakistan. There are two forces acting to make Russia inclined to Pakistan more than ever before. India was once a very close ally, but of late has been drawing closer to the USA. Apart from that, Russia is drawing closer to China, which has a close relationship with Pakistan. The USA-China conflict also impinges on this dynamic.
So far, Russia has remained supportive of India on all issues, including that of Kashmir. That issue is likely to come up, and while a reversal of its previous stance is not to be looked for, any softening of the Russian position will have to be accounted a success. Pakistan will need to engage India’s main ally if it wishes to counter India’s moves in the Middle East, symbolized by the visit to India of the Saudi army chief. If India believes that befriending its ally’s allies will reduce Pakistan’s friends, Pakistan is right to befriend India’s allies.
