The Ukrainian move to join NATO provoked Russia to start thinking about its rule over Ukraine in the past. The USA also played a role by backing Ukraine and that is the central point which ignited the tensions as illustrated by many analysts. The tensions between one of the world’s largest militaries and Ukraine is escalating day by day. Russia has already deployed over 100,000 troops along with some of the sophisticated military build-ups which includes tanks, air defense systems, infantry fighting vehicles, and naval vessels.
Here arise some questions. Why did the escalation happen? Is NATO in position to help Ukraine in this crisis situation? What is the purpose of Russia’s drills near the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv? Is Russia moving towards expansionism once again?
Ukraine is considered to be in the sphere of influence of Russia and therefore, Russia will not accept the USA’s interference in this region. Moreover, Ukraine is also playing the role of an evil party between NATO on one side and Russia on the other.
If any miscalculation happens, it can lead to “An unpredictable path,” to quote UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, from where there is no way back and that is war. In such a situation there is no win-win situation for anyone but a loss for all. Now to contain the situation, the statement given by Biden not to send troops to Ukraine is the best possible way to avoid such a big curse. This move is very calculated and can save the world from any nuclear war, because Russia as well as NATO possess nuclear weapons.
Russia has more influence in Ukraine than the USA. Similarly, the Biden Administration has been less assertive than previous governments in competing with Russia, due to which they have been less successful geopolitically in Eastern Europe. Consequently, the role of NATO is also getting reduced. The major upheaval in NATO members is that there is abruptly changed behaviour among the members itself and it can be seen in between France and the USA.
According to some of the media reports Russia has already deployed over 100,000 troops on the borders of Ukraine, and is increasing the number to 130,000, out of which the 30,000 have been busy in military drills 5n Belarus with its army. Russia is deploying state-of-the-art military machinery near the border of Ukraine in Belarus. In these military drills Russia has positioned S-400 missile defence systems, fighter jets and highly equipped helicopters. Russia is also building up its armed forces in Crimea and along the north of Ukraine.
The standoff between the Kremlin and Kyiv puts a question on the sovereignty of Ukraine and it also poses a threat posture to the soil of the European countries. It is the most important viewpoint which is also supported and stated by most of the analysts. The USA is also not indulging itself in this crisis because of the involvement of Russia and due to their rivalry in the international sphere. The upcoming visit of Germany’s Chancellor would also be ended with no solution and no hope for the protection of the Ukrainian government and its soil.
The question also arises about the role of the superpower, major powers and peacekeeping organizations, why sovereign states are so vulnerable? It can be concluded that the annexation of Ukraine is going to happen any day and at any time. Certainly, there will be resistance from among the masses, but Russia is aware of it, and is looking at a carefully calculated calculus.
Furthermore, Russian President V3ad505r Putin is planning for the reunion of all the states of the former USSR, and they are quite successful in moving towards this aim. The USA has supported some of the organizations in the Ukraine against Russia but they have not been successful. Instead, Russia has again supported pro-Russian groups in the East of Ukraine and is moving forward with the same momentum.
Ukraine is constantly calling its eastern partners for support in financial as well as military 0atters, but they are only practising diplomacy and only giving joint statements. They are engaging in facesaving in terms of giving warnings as a third party to the Russian government. But on the other hand, Russia is getting increasingly strong support from the pro-Russian activists inside Ukraine.
The statement of the USA ‘not to send troops to Ukraine’ is a clear sign of Ukraine’s annexation by the Russian government. The Biden Administration has understood that things are out of its hands now, and that also makes everything easy for the Kremlin to annex Ukraine. And that is not a big deal for Putin, he knows how to invade Ukraine because he has the experience of the Crimean annexation. By taking over the Crimean Peninsula, Moscow has already aligned and positioned itself for the annexation of Ukraine. If one looks at the location of Ukraine, it is surrounded by Russian territory already, and now surrounded by the military machinery too.
The denial of invasion by the Russian President is baseless because what is the purpose of such acts and to whom they are showing their military strength? Putin is using blunt and aggressive movements against Ukraine and is supporting his stance that Ukraine was part of the former USSR. The main reason why Russia wants to annex Ukraine (like it did Crimea in 2014) is that it considers Ukraine its own territory. Another reason why Russia wants to annex Ukraine is because of it being supported by the European countries towards democracy. Russia’s hostility and aggression is against the alliance of Ukraine with NATO members as well as with EU members.
NATO has deployed its troops in the Eastern European countries by saying that it will defend the territories of its members, but it seems that NATO is trying to defend Ukraine against Russia’s threat. However, NATO is not in position to defend Ukraine except for shuttle diplomacy. And the most important setback was given to NATO and Ukraine by US President Joe Biden in an interview to NBC by saying that, “American citizens should leave now”. Further he warned American citizens that the USA will not send its troops to evacuate its citizens from Ukraine. We could conclude from this that the USA is not able to wage war against Russia.
In a nutshell, Russia is most probably going to annex, or one can say invade, Ukrainian territory as it is already made obvious by the statement of the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. It is a clear sign for all those countries that got independence after the fall of the USSR. Russia is going to challenge all such territories that were the part of the former USSR. There is a serious threat not only to such territories but to the position of NATO and especially the USA in the current geopolitical and international order.
One possible solution for such aggressions of Russia towards its former states could be “Power Maximization ” and to abide by international law. Who will protect the states’ sovereignty against major powers or superpower? Peacekeeping organizations like the UN also have failed in curtail states from breaching sovereignty and violating human rights.
The question also arises about the role of the superpower, major powers and peacekeeping organizations, why sovereign states are so vulnerable? It can be concluded that the annexation of Ukraine is going to happen any day and at any time. Certainly, there will be resistance from among the masses, but Russia is aware of it, and is looking at a carefully calculated calculus.
