The impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine will not remain confined to Europe alone. The war is likely to trigger a massive negative supply shock to the global economy. The pandemic has already left the global economy with high inflation and jittery financial markets. The aftershocks from the ongoing conflict could worsen both. The developing countries would be the worst sufferers.
The war poses a challenge to the global dominance of the USA and the western-led international order created after World War II. This is apparent from dissenting voices rising from countries who are unwilling to endorse the stand taken by the USA and its western allies on Ukraine. With India and UAE joining China in abstaining on a UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is reflective of the change. Pakistan too abstained from supporting the resolution in the UN General Assembly that demanded immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.
The Ukraine issue has provided an opportunity to countries like Pakistan to defy bloc politics, give priority to their national interest and try to cultivate good relations with all. The USA was unhappy over Prime Minister Imran Khan visiting Russia at this juncture. The explanation that the visit was meant to discuss bilateral issues only was not acceptable to Washington which insisted that it was the responsibility of every country to voice objection to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans. Pressures are now being exerted on Pakistan through European Union diplomats stationed in Islamabad to urge it to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The USA and Europe being the biggest destinations of Pakistan’s exports, Islamabad cannot altogether ignore their views. Pakistan however is not the only county who is keen to have good relations with both the USA and Russia.
The USA and Europe are the biggest destination of Pakistan’s exports. Millions of Pakistanis are either working in these countries or have permanently settled there. Remittances sent by expatriates constitute a lifeline for the country’s economy. Similarly thousands of Pakistani students get admission in universities in the West. Pakistan has therefore to walk a fine line to convince the West that neutrality on the issue is in the best interests of Pakistan.
