On March 28, led by Shahbaz Sharif, the Opposition finally moved a no-confidence motion in Parliament to remove the sitting Prime Minister (PM), Imran Khan, of the ruling coalition led by the Pakistan Tehreeke Insaf (PTI). As the opposition leader, Sharif invoked Article 95 of the Constitution and expressed the resolve that the PM had lost a majority in the House. Hence, the PM should cease to hold the office. The debate on the resolution would commence on March 31 and the voting would be held within seven days, probably on April34.
The last straw that broke the camel’s back was the announcement of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) that it had broken ranks with the ruling coalition to join the opposition benches. Unlike Chaudhry Pervez Elahi of the Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-i-Azam (PML-Q), who fell for the slot of the Punjab’s Chief Minister for the rest of the (un)expected tenure, the MQM showed prescience to secure its position for the next five years. In the “national interests”, the beaten track, the MQM entered into a pact with the opposition parties to get its offices opened in Karachi (to revive political activities) and secure certain politico-administrative posts in the future set-up (to resuscitate the party’s power in Karachi). Further, on the one hand, the MQM-P demanded the recovery of its missing persons, whereas on the other hand, the party observed silence on the role of its shooters trained for killing opponents mercilessly. In Sindh, how the PPP deals with the militant face of the MQM in general would be a major challenge.
Generally, committing blunders on the foreign policy front de-popularized the PTI in the western-oriented educated and ruling class, which sees its future associated with the West. The attempts of the PM Office to sweep its blunders under the carpet of national esteem have remained short of serving the purpose. Unnecessary bravado has invited more problems for Pakistan than could serve the country
In the Punjab, the PML(Q)’s decision to stick to the ruling party in the no-confidence resolution is a blessing in disguise for the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), which wants to serve the province once again to establish its political imprint undyingly. The PML(Q) missed the golden opportunity to stage a comeback in Punjab in the forthcoming elections, after which Elahi could have become the Chief Minister. The PML(Q) is bound to regret its decision. Once lost, such an opportunity is irretrievable later.
The ruling PTI experienced a series of defections for three major reasons; first, a perpetual economic meltdown; second, an uninterrupted political instability; and third, a plethora of foreign policy failures.
After winning the controversial elections in 2018, the PTI remained crisis-driven: after dealing with one crisis, it fell into the next one. Inexperience and incompetence remained the hallmark of its rule. The PTI lawmakers expected that running the government’s affairs would be a nine-to-five job. The evening would be open for carousing. This could not be the case. In Pakistan, political instability is intrinsic to the body politics. Mistakes pile up to destabilize any ruling set-up.
Even a martial law exceeding more than five years struggled for steadiness. Pakistanis are politically impatient. Mistakes of a ruling government exacerbate their impatience. Interestingly, with the slogan of “change”, the PTI came into power but the party ignored the fact that the change was the factor persistent with the Pakistanis, who are intolerant to anything stationary for a long time. The PTI itself has become a victim of the desire for 0change.
Another calculation went wrong was that the military would keep on buttressing the PTI. The military could have continued with its support for the PTI, if Nawaz Sharif had not launched into tirades from London publicly against the military leadership that had undermined his government. Overt denouncements took a heavy toll on the military’s repute, both locally and internationally.
The PML(N) voter held the military responsible for the loss of their votes. Other opposition parties felt that they could also speak out their mind to the public more vehemently. The international press started questioning the role of the military in coercing political governments to do its bidding. Internationally, an effort was made to channelize funds avoiding the military, which felt increasingly isolated. Even funds and training were denied.
The major cause of rift between the PM Office and the military was the country’s economy. That is, how to run the economy to serve the masses, as the military was already helping the PTI to run the administration. The economy remained the weakest point of both the PTI and the military. Both considered each other responsible for the failure on the economic front.
The military considered it vital to keep advising the PM Office on the need to improve the economy at the earliest. The masses were annoyed at the PTI, as the flaunted dream team of economic managers was missing.
From Day One, the PMO remained clueless on how to manage the economy. The military forced the PM Office to change the country’s economic wizards, who kept on jiggling with the economic trajectory. The practice made the mockery of the PTI. The persistent advice on the economy and frequent interfering in economic decisions created bad blood between the PM Office and the military.
Another cause of fissure was that the military tried to help the PTI in administrative affairs, but this attempt backfired. Instead of improving administration for the PTI, the military earned the notoriety for being the backseat driver of the PTI. Created by Bilawal Bhutto, the slogan of the “prime minster select” forced the PM finally into distancing his office from any semblance of being considered subordinate to the military. The slogan drove a wedge of variance between the PM Office and the military headquarters. Acrimony emerged on the appointment of the DG ISI. This was unexpected for the military, which felt spent. Nevertheless, the difference became the culmination of annoyance lingering on between the PM Office and the military.
Generally, committing blunders on the foreign policy front de-popularized the PTI in the western-oriented educated and ruling class, which sees its future associated with the West. The attempts of the PM Office to sweep its blunders under the carpet of national esteem have remained short of serving the purpose. Unnecessary bravado has invited more problems for Pakistan than could serve the country.
