Although the PTI has decided to switch into election mode after losing its majority in the National Assembly to the joint opposition, voted out through a constitutionally mandated no-confidence motion, it will find, sooner rather than later, that staying out of the Lower House and on the streets for too long is not a viable and maintainable strategy. That the former PM was able to attract massive crowds in key urban centres of the country on a day’s notice is impressive, but it is important to consider that the call was made through state media for a post-iftar protest on Sunday, attracting emotionally charged and temporarily disappointed followers, meaning that such numbers may not be replicable going forward. The upcoming rallies in Peshawar and Karachi will no doubt be crowd pullers but such gatherings are hardly representative of the sentiments in key constituencies where PTI will have to compete against candidates of parties now in government, especially the PML(N). Now that party tickets have been guaranteed for those who did not jump ship during the former opposition’s putsch, it will be interesting to see how many candidates head to their respective constituencies to ask for votes another time on a PTI ticket. Voters will now view the past three and a half years through the lens of high inflation, joblessness and a general disregard for the social contract.
While the PTI may have decided to quit the National Assembly en masse, it remains to be seen how many of these resignations make it through the scrutiny process whereby the Speaker of the House followed by the ECP must verify that these were not forced or taken under duress. It is more than likely that not all former members of treasury benches make sure their resignations are accepted, as last-minute reconsiderations can never be ruled out in high stakes politics.
Another crucial factor that must be considered is how the establishment has distanced itself from the PTI, requiring the party to enter the election arena depending purely on organic support rather than manufactured results. Imran Khan would be wise to accept that the elections he is gearing up for, will not be the cakewalk they were in 2018.
