Russia is one of the major powers in international politics and since February 2022, has been at war with Ukraine, while the energy, food and economic security of south Asia and other underdeveloped countries is being threatened. Russia is a major oil and gas producer and USA being an arms rival of Russia is a great superpower and any nation’s steps against any of these two states can result in destabilizing their own economy.
Therefore, keeping that in view, Pakistan and other underdeveloped countries had tried a number of ways to stay neutral (34 countries in the UN general assembly didn’t vote against any state) and enhance bilateral relations with both countries and maintain their balance of power in international politics.
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, 34 countries including Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, had maintained a neutral approach to the war crisis rather than supporting any state. That is an ever wise step from the Pakistan government in pursuing its national interest.
Pakistan being a periphery country has no national deposits and it can face a devastating economic effect if it tries to go against any superstate. Last few decades’ trade reports show how Pakistan’s total GDP is greatly based on bilateral trade with the USA, Russia and Ukraine.
Therefore, Pakistan which has just come-back from the covid-19 inflation and economic crises, is not in a position to put itself in another hurdle. Hence, being neutral like 33 other countries in the United Nations Security Council is the best stance Pakistan diplomacy can come up with.
In the last 24 years, Pakistan’s exports to Russia have increased at an annualized rate of 13.6 percent from $13.1 million (1996) to $279 million (2020). In the same year, Pakistani imports from Russia increased at 10.2 percent from $67.6 million (1996) to 699 million (2020)
Pakistani exports to Ukraine have increased at an annualized rate of 15.5 percent from $18 million (1996) to $573 million (2020). Similarly, Pakistan imports from Ukraine have increased at an annualized rate of 14.8 percent from $2.98 million (1996) to $82.1 million (2020)
In 2019, before the global pandemic, Pakistan and USA combined imports and exports were worth $6.6 billion, $2.6 billion exports, $3.9 billion imports and $1.9 billion trade deficit.
Altogether, Pakistan has raised its GDP from $82.02 billion in 2000 to $263.7 billion in 2020. The increase in GDP is clear evidence of Pakistan’s performance on developing bilateral relationships with great powers in international politics. Now, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is a tough test of Pakistan’s diplomatic skills to pursue the ongoing relations. So far Pakistan has maintained a neutrality approach, neither in the favour of Russia and neither in the favour of Ukraine.
Pakistan is an underdeveloped country and as such has little or no influence in international politics among great powers. The reason for Pakistan being neutral is the same as other 33 countries. If Pakistan goes in support of Ukraine then Russia is on the door to impose sanctions on Pakistan. Currently, Russia is supporting Pakistan with $2 billion in the Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline Project from Karachi to Kasur. In February 2022, Imran Khan and Vladimir Putin made a deal that Pakistan will import $2 million wheat this year. These all benefits from Russia can be made to vanish in a blink of an eye.
Afterward, Russia can cut off Pakistan from its oil and gas exports which can result in huge inflation. In case, if Pakistan goes in the support of Russia rather than the USA, a great superpower and arms rival of Russia, it is on the door to imposed sanctions. Currently, Pakistan is in $130 Billion debts to mulitilateral agencies, apart from fsacing sanctions from FATF, any more economic pressure can result in historic inflation. As evidence, when the European Union was pressurizing Pakistan to clear their stance on a single side on the Russia Ukraine issue, then Prime Minister Imran Khan commented “What are we? Are we your slaves? Do we do what you say?” resulting in a $55 Million sanction on the State Bank of Pakistan.
Therefore, Pakistan which has just come-back from the covid-19 inflation and economic crises, is not in a position to put itself in another hurdle. Hence, being neutral like 33 other countries in the United Nations Security Council is the best stance Pakistan diplomacy can come up with.
Keeping all that in view, Pakistani foreign policy should be based on its national interest while developing bilateral relations with all states.
Currently, Russia is looking for a new global market for exporting oil and gas after being cut off from Europe and the USA. Pakistan can take it as a means to lower its energy crisis and inflation lasting for the two years. Then India had Russian support since the end of the Cold War. Pakistan in its foreign policy objectives can utilize this time to gain Russia support for future endeavours. That can be done by bilateral deals just as done by former PM Imran Khan.
