Ever since the Opposition submitted the no-confidence motion against Imran Khan in the National Assembly secretariat, the political arena has seen daily swirling ups and downs for allplayers, but only person is finding himself continuously whirled into the quagmire of despondency, without any hope of respite soon, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif himself.
Every stakeholder has gained something– all the PDM’s parties, except the PML(N), have a relatively bigger share in the federal cabinet. Ironically, Imran Khan too, despite losing the premiership, has emerged as the biggest beneficiary by successfully diverting attention from his extremely dismal performance as PM to the new mantra of “imported Government Na-Manzoor”.
When the public resentment was picking up momentum against the astronomical inflation, continuous devaluation of rupee and bad governance, removal from power has actually proven a blessing in disguise for him, and hispopularity is now soaring high because of a very effective campaign playing the sympathy and patriotism cards.
In the last days of the PTI government, starting from early February, the rupee was melting fast, loadshedding had suddenly become a daily routine and petrol prices were jacking up almost weekly, Imran was in a deep mess and it was expected that after the 2022-2023 budget the PTI government would not be able to survive longer. All was set for the “natural political demise” of the PTI government. The Opposition had to just wait a few more months and the PTI would have been out of power under extreme public pressure against the high inflation, fuel prices and eroding rupee. In the absence of good financial managers, courtesy the long list of incompetent and clueless heads of the PTI finance team, from Asad Umar to Shaukat Tareen, the PTI government had actually no concrete plans to salvage the country from impending financial catastrophe. The Opposition, particularly the PML(N) leadership, needed a little more patience for a few months to let the erosion of the PTI government take its natural course. But the Opposition – the PDA to be more exact – showed unnecessary haste in getting rid of Imran Khan at the wrong time, though for all the right reasons. Till April, it was clear to everybody, even to the common man, that the country was heading towards a massive financial crunch after the budget session.
Shehbaz is now in a fix. He can neither leave the stage at this time, nor has anything tangible in his bag to resolve the common man’s immediate problems. It was his personal choice to get rid of Imran before the budget session. Nawaz was reluctant to listen to Zardari and Fazal, now both hiding from the limelight.
Everyone was expecting that the currency to reach new lows, fuel prices to cross Rs 200, loadshedding to be uncontrolled and the imposition of IMF dictation to make it almost impossible for any national finance to steer the economy out of this vicious circle soon.The wWriting on the wall was very clear in early April; the uncontrollable storm of inflation, loadshedding and unemployment would consume Imran’s political career. But instead of showing some patience, the PML(N) leadership toed the line of PDM stalwarts like Asif Zardari and Maulana Fazalur Rehman.
Now what prompted Mian Shehbaz, against Mian Nawaz’s advice, to take such a step, which can at best be described as “utterly rash” at a time when the economy was heading towards massive crisis? Zardari and Maulana Faza had their own venal reasons to persuade the PML(N) leadership to join hands in uprooting Imran and replacing him with a coalition under Mian Shehbaz before the budget session. Obviously, there was also a go-ahead from the powerful quarters to dislodge Imran Khan hastily.
Both Zardari and Fazal had nothing to lose. If the no-confidence motion failed, the whole embarrassment would have been the PML(N)’s, and if it succeeded, as it did, the whole credit would be Zardari’s and Fazal’s. This is exactly what happened. Both have a major share in the power structure, both have their sons in the federal Cabinet and both are now keeping a low profile and letting Shehbaz alone take the blame alone for the fuel price hike and sinking rupee.
Shehbaz is the only person facing the brunt of the harsh realities of running a government with both hands and pockets tied. The rupee devaluation against dollar has crossed a double century, the petrol prices have also followed the dollar, loadshedding is getting out of control in this blistering summer and commodity prices are skyrocketing. All the right ingredients to make any government highly unpopular.
Most financial and technical experts agree that these landmines were planted by the inept and incompetent PTI finance team, which made delayed and faulty financial decisions that dragged the country into this financial imbroglio. But now Shehbaz, not the other coalition partners, is being blamed for his inability to control the unabating financial predicament. He was well aware of the impending financial crunch and its fallout on the PML(N)’s popularity, and there is insider news that Nawaz also opposed a no-confidence motion before the budget session. But both Zardari and Fazal shrewdly exploited Shehbaz’s old, burning desire to become PM and convinced him to strike Imran Khan out of power in April.
The overtly over-confident Shehbaz, famous for being a hard taskmaster with a track record of initiating and completing “projects”’ within tight deadlines, was relying on his traditional style of brinkmanship to control the situation within a few weeks. But the ground reality is that the financial mismanagement of the previous government as well as existing snags of the global economy have created such a mess it will take years to put things back on track. As for today, a common man does not understand, nor wants to understand the technical complications of domestic and global economy; he wants roti, kapra aur makan at affordable prices and continuous supplies of gas and electricity. This is the simple reality.
As expected, owing to tough monetary constraints and stringent IMF conditionalities, the coalition’s budget does not offer any tangible relief. Apparently, Shehbaz and his core team have no concrete plan for some respite for the common man immediately.
The post-budget months are going to be very tough for Shehbaz: load-shedding alone can engulf his reputation, leave alone other inflation-related pressures on the lower and lower-middle classes.
On the other hand, Imran Khan is riding high, courtesy the PTI’s extremely professional social media team, on the wave of his resurgent popularity to create more problems for the government. Unlike his questionable performance as PM, Imran Khan has always proven to be the most formidable person as opposition leader- he will become more khatarnak (dangerous) as he himself said.
Shehbaz is now in a fix. He can neither leave the stage at this time, nor has anything tangible in his bag to resolve the common man’s immediate problems. It was his personal choice to get rid of Imran before the budget session. Nawaz was reluctant to listen to Zardari and Fazal, now both hiding from the limelight. The 2022-2023 budget would have politically weakened Imran Khan to the point of costing him his premiership. The situation would have been much more conducive politically for Mian Shehbaz Sharif to take charge.
