By the time, the newspapers of the day hit the stand today (Sunday), the by-election battle for 20 constituencies in Punjab must have kicked off in full force spread over the South Punjab, inclusive of the Seraiki belt, and also Central and northern limits of Punjab. Practically the process will give a third-party analyst a clean snapshot of what can be cautiously expected in the upcoming general elections in 2023.
By-elections have been generally treated as the test case of the level of faith the voter has on the incumbent party in power. On the other hand, it is also a litmus test of the parties waiting in opposition for the next round of elections. The parties’ top leaders grace the election rallies to pump up the potential voter, as well as try to create a swing among the non-committal voter in the target constituency.
However, a cursory look at the campaign mood, the tone of the leaders as well as the aggressiveness of the cadre all indicate, very clearly that it is the matter of life and death for the booted-out party; the PTI as well as the lead successor as the result of vote of no-confidence; the PML(N). For the PTI it is a matter to prove that it is still popular with the common person; despite the injustice meted out to the party through what it calls the “unceremonious exit” from the scene given it by the “neutrals”. For the PML(N), it is the matter of a litmus test to prove that it is still a popular party in the major province of Pakistan; rather its home province.
We might argue what were the results in the 2018 elections and what might have been the trends in the constituencies’ since the 1970 first general election. However, needless to say; these polls are being held under the most exceptional circumstances. PTI chief Imran Khan, equating it as something like jihad, strongly suggests that the narrative built by the party around the paradigm of US interference like the 1953 Mossadegh coup in Iran, squarely rests on how the party performs in the 20 constituencies. The PTI chairman is leaving no stone unturned in the form of verbal barrage; comparisons, playing of selected clips through multimedia to get across the imagination of the crowd. The PTI’s future course of action depends upon these polls.
For the incumbent party, stakes are equally high. Its leaders leave no opportunity to claim that they took over the reins of power at a time when their hands were extremely tied because of dire economic conditions. They project themselves as a brave political trend, which has a much long-term vision in focus than just winning the race for the provincial assembly. Their argument carries weight on the single count that they might not have realized the depth of the economic crisis. In the process of participating in the no confidence move; whether it was a natural outcome in a working democracy or was a creative way to reset things in “hybrid” settings, the incumbent party literally gambled with its political future; in the short term as well as the long term.
Having fathomed the stakes for both the parties, we can imagine to an extent how things are going to move forward once the process is complete by the early hours of Monday. A PTI clean sweep would mean that the booted-out party is able to show to the powers in control that they still matter for the future of the country. Automatically, the PTI will be in the position to claim that its anti-establishment narrative has found massive support in the major make-or-break province of Pakistan; Punjab. Punjab is in fact the critical key to the road to Islamabad.
The ending weeks of July can be the ones, which might not throw up a rapid change at Lahore or Islamabad for that matter; but will certainly set the pace for the future of the country. The fall out can further radicalize the polity to unmanageable limits for the established order. It can also trigger dialogue, which can ensure that all the players, including the ultra-radical ones, are ready to live by the system. Coming weeks and months are up for a battle of wits or business as usual. We need to wait and see!
For the PML(N) a good showing of up to a dozen seats means that it can claim the chief ministe ship of the province with more assertive behaviour. Similarly, it can also claim that the Punjab voter has stood by its narrative despite the massive inflation spiral during its rule; the economic slowdown due to inflation; or a stagflationary mode in which the economy is moving. The recent somersaults in the context of OGRA notings for price adjustments are influenced by that thought process within the PML(N). They want to prove that despite the pressure of the staff level agreement with the IMF and other pressing imperatives for economic correction; they are willing to pass on the benefits of the depressing price trends for POL in the international market.
Given the level of hype connected with the by-elections for the parties in contest; the PTI and the PML(N); any results not of their liking will be opposed tooth and nail by all concerned. The PTI, going by the tempo and the sentiment it has carried along, is most likely to cry foul if its candidates fail to make it. The party is unlikely to go for a soul-searching exercise; an exercise; it might have opted for in normal times. Keeping in view the fact that it has already been in agitation mode since April 10, it is unlikely that it will wait for the result to settle out and ponder.
In that context; like scenarios, for instance the Aquino presidential polls in 1986 Philippines. A scenario like the 1977 agitation in Pakistan by the combined opposition against Bhutto in the aftermath of election rigging; or the 2009 Reform movement agitation against the clerical establishment in Iran, when reformist candidate Mir Hossain Mosavi failed to be elected as the president of the Islamic Republic; can be expected in Pakistan. The reaction from the PML(N) might not be that as in case it is defeated; it will certainly like to frustrate the PTI moment of success with countless electoral petitions.
Coming back to the PTI; given the polarized political environment in the country, the party cadres are likely to protest, if they lose in even a few seats. Statements on Twitter by the incumbent Federal Interior Minister literally threatening the PTI cadres have helped create an air of fear about the election results aftermath. The instances of law enforcement agencies’ high handedness during the build-up to the May 25 PTI Azadi march are still fresh in the minds of all concerned. A general feeling that the incumbent order has all the support from the relevant quarters, strongly suggests that further human rights abuses in case the protests erupt, at the hands of the law enforcement agencies cannot be ruled out.
Here, students of political history of Pakistan may recall, how much tear gas canisters the late Benazir Bhutto was made to inhale during the November 1992 Long March, the merciless beating of PSF LEADER Sohail Malik by the Lahore Police, equally inhuman torture meted out to the PPP leader, the late Salman Taseer, in a distant police station in Lahore. Given the record, refreshed again in the 2014 direct shoot-out with Prof Tahirul Qadiri, the week in the follow-up of the bad results for PTI can cause extreme violent scenarios.
The ending weeks of July can be the ones, which might not throw up a rapid change at Lahore or Islamabad for that matter; but will certainly set the pace for the future of the country. The fall out can further radicalize the polity to unmanageable limits for the established order. It can also trigger dialogue, which can ensure that all the players, including the ultra-radical ones, are ready to live by the system. Coming weeks and months are up for a battle of wits or business as usual. We need to wait and see!
