The sweep in the by-elections; horse-trading by the political opponents with the presumed support of the established order; followed by a shock favorable judgement at the Supreme Court. That followed by logistics for the PTI to elect a chief minister of Punjab by a renowned property developer affiliated with the right quarters!What is happening?
The incumbent Prime Minister’s elder brother distancing himself from the younger brother’s decisions; whispering calls for early snap elections: all indicate that the powers to be and the establishment; from Pentagon to General Headquarters, is decided on the restoration of Imran Khan back on the political map of Pakistan. Any judicial decision in Pakistan is generally perceived to have the blessing of the established order. Furthermore, calls for elections and strong rumours all indicate a kind of rapprochement between the radicals and the kings.
Given the flight plans of business entities’ aviation services close to the established order to the scions of families again close to the established order carrying the party for change banner, it is more than clear that the powers-that-be want the return of business as usual. They dread any real change or even chaos, which destabilizes the nation state they bank upon. Conclusively, the coming months will bring more surprises for the thinking and concerned citizens sitting on the proverbial sidelines
For a few sceptical experts in geopolitics, the ouster of Imran Khan was not the Mosaddeq episode; rather they likened it with the restoration of Shah on August 19, 2022 on the back of perceived or constructed public support, based on projection as the saviour of the country’s economy and honour. If the sceptic’s analysis is accepted with a pinch of salt, the situation seems to be taking that turn; in fact a very predictable turn.
The country and polity are likely to remain under the old management and the so-called promises for the middle income and the poor by the ousted political group might not materialize for good. The reasons for many observers to arrive at this conclusion are based on the following premises.
The political group PTI, irrespective of the circumstances of its inception in 1996, was never perceived to be the party of change, which would have the bones to rewrite the constitution or change the political culture for good. The 1970 elections threw up a dismembered Pakistan divided between the liberals and the right; represented respectively by the PPP and its opponents. It was the 1988 elections held by the beleaguered establishment after the PAF C-130 crash in Bahawalpur which actually helped consolidate the battle lines which were to haunt the Pakistani voter, especially the one prone to swings on election day.
The established order played musical chairs with the two trends in politics encapsulated in the form of the PPP and the PML(N) during the next 11 years. These years frustrated the common Pakistani to the point where they wished they could have more choices to exercise. For the urban middle income individual as well as his rural and suburban brother, there was already the need to look for alternate representatives. In Karachi, the MQM was able to partially answer that question. Its leadership was able to imagine the middle-class standard ideals for life. It was precisely the reason that despite its reputation for being a fascist political group, the country’s biggest urban centre’s educated middle-income group faithfully voted for the group in successive elections.
For the rest of the country, it was business as usual. The success of the Shaukat Khanum Hospital and consequent projection of Imran Khan as a successful philanthropist gradually paved the way for his ascent as the choice for political leadership. Here it may be noted that any new political trend in suburban societies as Pakistan is generally treated as a conspiracy.
Given the fact that the person in question is not battle tested adds to the layers of “conspiracy toppings”. Intelligence outfits; local or foreign, as part of their TORs do not create movements. They egg upon the available currents of resentment or longing to make the most of the opportunities available. Many political movements have gone berserk during their existence; consequently, causing collateral damage. They have been the ones, where the manipulators did not account for the “human factor”.
The party having established itself in a province, KPK was more than willing to take a plunge countrywide. Given the fact that post-1988 political governments had an image of being run by family clubs; any political party crying “revolution” had more than a chance to capture the middle-income strata imagination; even if it was simply not capable to do so in the first place. The 2018 polls, how much managed or how many actions by the mainstream parties contributed to the success of the PTI, remains open for debate. However, the fact remains that whether the new entrant was a serious agent of change or only added to few cosmetic features of the state and polity; it only helped the established order through delaying any genuine cries for complete overhaul of the system.
Practically; it will be evident in the next polls, whether they are held in 2022 as whispered or in 2023 as scheduled, that the voters will choose; whether their ambit in mind is of complete change of system; or the intent is to survive within the system. What can be the scenario is either the public at large wishes change or eventually votes for any narrative, which according to that section of public perception fulfils the conditions of change, or the people feel that the status quo is just the thing they want. Towards that end, it will be of critical importance how much the party cadres and supporters are willing to go for change. The people they led pushed many a moderate towards hard line. Sheikh Mujib would have loved to be part of Pakistan as a federating unit, yet the people he led forced him to create a new homeland. For Khan, it will be important if the middle-income supporters he leads are content with few concessions the established order offers or want a genuine change.
Here any party seeking change even if cosmetic will go for the electable; means the person who is part of the political, social and economic system; is well connected with military and civilian armed forces and has enough funds even of dubious nature, to share with the party of change. There has been talk of the ousted party seeking reelection into the vacant Punjab assembly seats through the electable candidates and not through the untested revolutionaries. If these allegations are true, then the scepticism of the analysts who feel that the last four months’ politicking was an animation holds true.
Unfortunately, the precedents for such feelings exist in the past. Benazir Bhutto, when she came to power in 1988 and 1993 and when she was planning the return in 2008, was a much-watered down version of the radical she was regarded as being when she landed in Lahore on 10 April 1986. For the established order, a radical with clipped wings is more manageable than exposing the state to radical revolutionaries who do not relate to the state or its system.
Given the flight plans of business entities’ aviation services close to the established order to the scions of families again close to the established order carrying the party for change banner, it is more than clear that the powers-that-be want the return of business as usual. They dread any real change or even chaos, which destabilizes the nation state they bank upon. Conclusively, the coming months will bring more surprises for the thinking and concerned citizens sitting on the proverbial sidelines.
Pakistan will be subject to a change, not what the voiceless Pakistanis feel in their hearts; but the change which is suited for the powers-that-be. Any calls of revolution can be threats, not the actual war plan. To quote an old war song, which suits the profile of a genuine revolutionary “Ai Puttar Hattan tay nai wikde” (such sons don’t sell in shops)…
