Articles 370 and 35A provided Jammu and Kashmir with some autonomy. A glance at history would tell us that Jammu and Kashmir had been losing autonomy since the 1950s. History is replete with instances when presidential orders were used to reduce Indian Occupied Kashmir’s autonomy. According to a study, from 1952 to 1986, 42 presidential orders were promulgated eroding Kashmir’s autonomy. The Modi government’s abrogating Articles 370 & 35A was the final nail in the coffin. Depriving Jammu and Kashmir of its autonomy was an explicit violation of International law. According to international law expert Ahmer Bilal Soofi, Modi’s move violated UN-mandated obligations and the Fourth Geneva convention. Some experts said the Modi government divided Jammu and Kashmir into two states which were against the UN resolutions. A disputed territory could not be divided into sub-territories.
Another important dimension of the abrogation was that it left adverse impacts on the Valley. It posed psychological, economic, and political challenges. Snatched autonomy, lockdowns, and the brutalities of Indian forces psychologically affected the people. The ratio of probable depression was 50 percent among females and 37 percent among males. Males suffered 21 percent anxiety disorders, females 36 percent. The ratio of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder was 18 percent among males and 22 percent among females.
Jammu and Kashmir suffered a loss of Rs17,878 crore from August 5, 2019, to December 2019. The tourism, agricultural and industrial sectors suffered losses of Rs 1056 crore, Rs 4591 crore, and Rs 45095 crore respectively.
Scrapping Articles 370 & 35A also has several political implications. 1) In the pre-revocation period, there were two important political groups in Jammu and Kashmir: Unionists and separatists. Unionists preferred living under the Indian constitution over separation. They were in favor of autonomy, not separation. Abrogation of articles has changed their direction. Now, they are more likely to join the separatists. Unionists were under influence of the Indian government but now they have to choose whether to be stooges or separatists. 2) India’s bid to deprive Kashmiris of their autonomy did not go unnoticed. Despite many efforts, India failed to bar the internalization of the issue. The Indian atrocities may lead to further unrest and may invite non-state actors. The possibility of terror attacks cannot be overruled. 3) An ill-thought-out plan to abolish Kashmir’s special status increased the trust deficit between Pakistan and India. Currently, there does not seem any possibility of a thaw. 4) BJP government gained more control over the Valley. It would use the legislative and administrative powers of the state for its fascist designs. 5) The welfare, development, and growth of the Valley got a serious blow.
Pakistan has to come out of the economic quagmire as soon as possible; the relevance of a country depends on its economic strength. Pakistan needs to make its diplomatic front more active and efficient. Pakistan cannot win freedom for Kashmir single-handedly; it needs world powers’ support.
Keeping in mind the above, it would be pertinent to shed a light on the world’s reaction to Indian action.
Pakistan: It has tried its best to make the Kashmir issue relevant. Especially, former Prime Minister Imran Khan played an unavoidable role to keep the world abreast of human rights violations in Kashmir. Khan offered peace dialogue time and again. Khan was aware of two facts: first, Kashmir was a nuclear flashpoint. It had the potential to push South Asia into instability. Second, Kashmir like Afghanistan, did not have a military solution. The Modi government created war hysteria in the country. It inculcated ultra-nationalistic and jingoistic thinking in people through media. The Modi government’s atrocities forced a 19-year-old Kashmiri to blow himself up in Pulwama. It led to the killing of 40 Central Reserve Police personnel . Without any evidence, New Delhi heaped all the blame on Pakistan claiming the latter sent terrorists. On this pretext, the IAF violated Pakistan’s air sovereignty and claimed surgical strikes in Balakot. On Feb 27, 2019, the PAF retaliated which resulted in the destruction of two Indian fighters and an Indian pilot Abhinandan’s capture. Khan handed over Abhinandan to the Indian government as a goodwill gesture but to no effect. Owing to the above-mentioned incidents, the trust-deficit widened and the Kashmir issue could not get the required attention. Khan took up the matter at the UN. He apprised the UN and the world of the gravity of the Kashmir issue. Even though Khan made the world community amply aware of the issue, nothing happened on ground.
Gulf States: The dismal response of the Gulf States left the supporters of Kashmir freedom shocked. Neither Saudi Arabia nor UAE could condemn the illegal step. There may be several reasons for the Muslim world’s disappointing response but economic ties with India may be the leading reason. The Kashmir and Palestine issues are no longer on the Gulf States’ agenda. Sadly, UAE’s ambassador to India termed the move India’s internal matter. To add insult to injury, when the Modi government’s atrocities in Kashmir were on the rise, UAE conferred the highest civilian award on Modi. It further added to the anger and despair of supporters of the Kashmir cause. The Muslim World could not take any practical step to deter India. The future is also dim.
USA: Its response was equally distressing and dismaying. The USA is known for brutal realism in global politics. In the USA’s scheme, a solution to an issue is only needed if it impinges upon its interests. According to a study titled “Critical analysis of the US mediating role in India-Pakistan conflict”, USA pressurized India economically, politically, and diplomatically to solve the Kashmir issue during the Cold war period.
In those days, the USA supported Pakistan’s stance because the latter was the former’s ally in countering communism. However, the post-cold war era saw a shift in USA’s policy on Kashmir. The USA emerged as a ‘crisis manager’ instead of a resolver of the issue after the Cold War. As India is USA’s strategic ally against China’s expansion, latter has not changed her policy to Kashmir.
Kashmir is burning and demanding serious attention. World powers are pursuing their hegemonic goals. The Gulf States’ boat has sunk in the sea of economic interests. The scattered Muslim world is like a one-wing bird that is unable to fly and consequently it can never make Kashmir fly. Pakistan must step up its efforts to solve the Kashmir issue.
Pakistan has to come out of the economic quagmire as soon as possible; the relevance of a country depends on its economic strength. Pakistan needs to make its diplomatic front more active and efficient. Pakistan cannot win freedom for Kashmir single-handedly; it needs world powers’ support.
