A loyal vote bank made to believe that the system would change in the next possible elections. That façade is possible only in Pakistan. As the powers that be continue to tighten the noose around the neck of the ousted Prime Minister while seeking a dialogue with him at the same time; the mood in the ousted PM’s Camp or in the PTI camp is that only an election held under the same “nizam” will deliver!
That can hold true if the whole electorate is made to believe that. On-ground experiences in the aftermath of the by-elections to the 20 vacant seats of the Punjab Assembly in July reveal another twist in the story. The PTI thrust, it seems, was geared to give the PML(N) a thumping defeat in the ballot. The PTI succeeded in that. However, that same sweep also popped up the scenario of a new Leader of the House in Punjab. The establishment-tested Ch Pervaiz Elahi was elected as the new Leader of the House. For the short-memoried political analysts it may be pointed out that before the April 10 quagmire, the currently elected CM of Punjab was already in line for the slot when Khan himself to ease political pressure in the centre showed Usman Buzdar the door.
As the time passes and the stepping in of the world media occurs as well as other factors, it seems not too far off that a political breakthrough is in the air for all. Khan related news stories on Qatar-based Al Jazeera and Israel-based i24 TV Channel means the party is recognized as part of the set-up and is not the disruptive revolutionary the party struggles to paint itself as
Obviously, in the new scenario the current CM had all the bargaining chips to convince Khan that he, the winning CM, was the only safe choice to move forward. For that it meant at least two vital provinces of the federation were in the hands of the party for change, the Pakistan Tehreek Insaf. Enough executive power for the revolutionary leader to move about and complete the occupation of the federal government.
As things turned out, the Shahbaz Gill fiasco showed to the observers, the party and the average person that the whole system was subservient to the deep state. Here it may be noted that the Sindh government led by the PPP was bold enough to allow the Waziristan-based PTM stage a sit-in for the release of their MNA Ali Wazir.
As things stand, the presence of PTI in two provinces, which are also exposed to the unprecedented rains and flood as the outcome of the freak monsoon season; means the party cannot absolve itself from the responsibility it owes to its electorate. So far, apart from the calls from the party supreme leader Imran Khan to the provincial governments to do the needful; the party cadre has not been guided to do the needful in terms of the relief work other than the government’s efforts.
In one way the goodwill and the loyalty the party accrued during the period between the period of April 10, 2022 uptil mid-July 2022; on the back of which the party was able to win the by-elections in Punjab, can evaporate in thin air. The reason being that if the public at large identifies the party with that very establishment which is admonished in full force by the PTI.
The reason at the core is the PTI insistence that it will capture the system from within like it did in 2018. It is still relying on the hope that once at the key seats, it can steer the country economic fortunes, foreign policy, constitution as well as polity, only based on the fighting-corruption slogan.
That reason also defines its key stances, like true foreign policy freedom is only possible if elections are held. In addition, the slogan that the neutrals have to be neutral! The insistence on their being neutral suggests that the so-called revolutionaries feel that the establishment has betrayed them by siding with their opponents, meaning the PML (N) and the PPP.
Practically, Imran Khan of 2022 might not be anything different from the Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto of 1966/67. Both were just out of the corridors of power; bore impressive personalities; enough for the Pakistani standards; both were addicted to mouthing radical slogans. Bhutto minced no words in 1967 and after, that once in power he would get out of the US-centred military pacts like SEATO and CENTO. However, both the military pacts witnessed participation of PAF, SSG commandos taking part with their US counterparts in exercises on a regular basis. Ironically the CENTO jets were roaring over Karachi,on 27 April 1977 when the sitting PM blamed the USA for plotting rebellion against him on the floor of Parliament, broadcast live on national TV!
An electoral promise for the return of the party carries some weight for any intending voter. Promising revolution while not having the insight, courage or even programme for one, smacks of intellectual dishonesty. People might be misguided about the content not available based on personality charisma, but in a society where divergence of views creates debates; such stances may not run for long and have the potential to create disillusionment.
Test cases of change from within in the case of Pakistan, Iran and Turkey shows that only the last one succeeded to an extent. Pakistan was on the verge in 1971, it got a party dictatorship. It was again on the verge in 2018. The same thing happened again. In Iran Mossadeq could not upstage the Shah, rather got himself in deep water. In the post-1979 period, the reformist presidents only created frustration in the Iranian society; in the process strengthening the cause of the groups standing and sitting on the fence. Only in Turkey, did the face of the state show some transformation.
Practically, it is business as usual for Khan; though the party might try to rebrand it as revolution in the making. A party controlling half of Pakistan, its party leader so much short of revolutionaries that he is contesting by-elections from nine National Assembly seats; can only sustain is particular state of mind courtesy ultra-radical slogans.
These ultra-radical slogans have landed the party leaders, quasi journalists-cum-activists and party zealots in trouble; a trouble which was not worth taking or affordable. As these words get into the preprocessing stage prior to the weekend, Khan has been predictably granted bail in a number of cases; which means the established order and the civilian partners are in no mood to make a Lenin out of Ch Shujaat.
As the time passes and the stepping in of the world media occurs as well as other factors, it seems not too far off that a political breakthrough is in the air for all. Khan related news stories on Qatar-based Al Jazeera and Israel-based i24 TV Channel means the party is recognized as part of the set-up and is not the disruptive revolutionary the party struggles to paint itself as.
To cling to the grassroot realities of Pakistani politics, the civil and the military elite has for long cultivated a love-hate relationship with each other over the decades. Selling misunderstanding between a major political party and the military establishment as a matter of national sovereignty by the former, smacks of creating an unnecessary hype and consequently using the same for the political point scoring. It seems the crisis will soon be over. The people of Pakistan have to fight out for themselves the new path. The apathy of the political groups vis a vis worst floods shows the true faces. It is for the nation to understand as early as they can.
