At last, India, after months of investigations, dismissed three Indian Air Force officers, including a group captain, for accidentally misfiring a BrahMos supersonic cruise missile that landed in Pakistan’s territory. These officers were primarily found responsible for deviating Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) which led to the accidental firing of the missile. Instead of providing answers, the dismissal of three officers further raises questions. Indian government needs to explain whether their missile launch SOPs are prone to such negligence or mala-fide acts of rogue elements in India’s command and control structure? It is equally worth asking how India ensures personal reliability in safe operations of its missiles, particularly BrahMos which can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads?
India’s late official acknowledgment of accidentally firing of a hypersonic cruise missile, BrahMos, not only exposed significant erosion in India’s command and control mechanism but also highlighted the failure of Indian leadership in safe and secure operations of its weapon system. With this unauthorized launch of BrahMos, the odds of a nuclear war in South Asia being instigated by a mistake have grown exponentially. Pakistan’s responsible behaviour saved the whole region from a near-catastrophic cycle of events. However, the incident has dented India’s credibility as a responsible and nuclear-weapon state.
However, it is irrational to assume that the threat of accidental nuclear war has gone away. Given India’s belligerent courses of action under PM Modi’s watch, Pakistan has genuine reasons to speculate if India was testing loopholes in Pakistan’s air defence system. Multiple factors strengthen the assertion that it was not inadvertent, but a deliberate attempt by India to test Pakistan’s defence system. First, if it was accidental, why did India keep silent after the incident occurred? India could have activated the ‘hotline’ between the respective Directors Generals of Military Operations in Delhi and Islamabad. The basic purpose of the hotline has failed. It was meant to calm a provocative security situation with advance communication.
The prospect of nuclear brinkmanship has exponentially increased in an already fragile region. Unfortunately, the international community failed to condemn India’s reckless behaviour; instead, there are global efforts to mainstream India into the global nuclear cartel. India’s firing of BrahMos into Pakistani territory should be a wakeup call for the global community.
Secondly, India’s response has been vague and unconvincing. One wonders why the self-destruct feature of the missile wasn’t activated before entering into Pakistan. Can Pakistan be blamed if it assumes that some rogue elements have taken control of India’s command and control system? India’s poor response to these questions raises more questions than answers. In fact, there is a genuine sense in Pakistan that India seems not interested in a serious overview of its command and control mechanism.
In response to the ISPR press conference, the Indian Defence Ministry stated, “On 9 March 2022, in the course of a routine maintenance, a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile.” But later on ,the court of inquiry indicated the human error behind the incident. The commanding officer of the Indian Air Force BrahMos missile command post has reportedly been found responsible for a grave operational lapse. Some scholars also argue that India changed its initial stance of technical malfunctioning when potential buyers of the BrahMos missile raised their concerns. For instance, the Philippines sought clarification from India after the Defence Ministry admitted to the BrahMos having been accidentally fired due to technical malfunctioning. These contradictory remarks support the assertion that India is hiding the facts.
Human security of strategic weapons is an essential part of any country’s command and control structure. This command and control system is also treated as an arrangement of human resources that engages in an efficient and infallible mechanised activity guided by clear and defined rules and where everything will function as intended. Unfortunately, with the Modi government in power, far-right Hindus having links with terrorist organization like the RSS, are part of India’s strategic decision-making body. The rogue elements within India’s decision making are prone to experiment with any kind of military misadventure, particularly against Pakistan.
In South Asia, the nuclear arch-rivals do not have the luxury of enough time for decision-making to intercept any kind of incoming missile. Unlike Cold War rivals, Russia and the USA, the South Asian neighbours’ geographical proximity leaves decision makers in a tough position to react within a couple of minutes, and it becomes more complicated if such an incident takes place during peacetime.
The prospect of nuclear brinkmanship has exponentially increased in an already fragile region. Unfortunately, the international community failed to condemn India’s reckless behaviour; instead, there are global efforts to mainstream India into the global nuclear cartel. India’s firing of BrahMos into Pakistani territory should be a wakeup call for the global community. Pakistan has long feared that under the premiership of Modi, extremist elements have taken control over the key decision-making bodies. International community should support Pakistan’s demand for a joint probe because given India’s lack of interest to dig into the matter; the so-called court of inquiry would be just an eyewash.
The fragility of the region cannot afford to bear yet another mishap of such a magnitude. The severity of the situation calls for a timely response from great powers. As a starter, the West should give up its support for India’s membership for the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and countries with nuclear cooperation with India must revisit its nuclear cooperation.
