The ongoing Russia-Ukraine situation shows no signs of normalization. Instead, they are spending their time attacking and repelling each other. Last August 24 was Ukraine’s Independence Day, and it was also six months since the Russian invasion. It is estimated that over thirteen thousand people have lost their lives in this ongoing war. However, Ukraine’s military capability cannot be compared to Russia’s. Because Russia is considered one of the world’s superpowers. Therefore, why is Russia slowly pushing Ukraine to the brink of collapse through a series of minor attacks? Is it part of a Russian strategy?
It is undeniable that Russia’s reputation as one of the world’s most powerful countries is in question due to the Ukrainian military’s fierce resistance. If Russia were to take over the entire Ukraine at this moment, international politics would be drastically altered. But another thing here is that a country cannot be occupied at will where the whole Western world supports it, as it does Ukraine.
It is noteworthy that Russia has been seen to continue small-scale attacks on Ukraine since the war started but has not been seen to conduct any major attacks. However, attacks occur on a regular basis. Even on this day of independence, Russian forces launched a missile attack on a Ukrainian train station and a nearby residential area, causing the deaths of 25 people. In this regard, Russia is essentially turning the country towards collapse. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s stockpile has been rapidly decreasing. It’s not like nothing happened to Russia; it also suffered significant losses. But Ukraine’s situation is worse than Russia’s. The country now relies on Western arms support.
So, if Russia prolongs this war, Ukraine will inevitably will become a shambles. But, even if Russia leaves Ukraine in a short period of time, the conflict inside Ukraine will remain. Because the Ukrainian people have already been divided into two groups. One is anti-Russian, while the other is pro-Russian.
However, Ukraine was once the world’s third-largest nuclear-armed nation. But after signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Ukraine handed over some weapons to Russia in return for the price of fuel gas imported from it and destroyed some of them in 1996.
Nevertheless, many analysts are trying to figure out the reason for Russia’s stumbling in the midst of the strong Ukrainian solid resistance. It is supposed to be a Russian strategy. The longer the Ukrainian army resists the Russians, the greater their fighting confidence will be. As a result, Ukraine will be totally involved in the desire to win the war. And one day, they will require more arms and soldiers than they currently have.
Moreover, there is a fear of food shortages due to rising commodity costs. Furthermore, Ukraine will have to struggle to provide everything to its citizens. If their demands are not fulfilled, the fall of the ruling government of Ukraine, like Sri Lanka, will be inevitable. And once this happens, many analysts believe that Russia will either put its ideologues in power or, through the dividing of Ukraine, will complete the process of creating multiple autonomous nations.
Since the beginning of the war, the West has pledged to support Ukraine. Often, they cooperated with arms and weapons. However, the West will not fight the entire war. Even if they wanted to, they could not regularly supply arms. Because Western arms producers are already under pressure to fulfill Ukraine’s armament demands. In addition, oil prices in Western countries, especially in the USA, have hit their highest level in several years, which economists view as detrimental to all nations. At some point, Western countries will be preoccupied with their own economic crisis. Meanwhile, Republican leaders in the USA have called for a reduction in aid to Ukraine and asked President Joe Biden to focus more on domestic issues than on wars abroad.
And if the West continues to provide arms to Ukraine in this way, it is also a question of whether they will face a shortage of weapons in the future if there is a major conflict with them. Because the current situation between the USA and China over Taiwan could escalate at any time, and once a conflict develops, the entire western world will focus its attention on it. Consequently, the countries will not be able to assist Ukraine at that moment.
As a result, Ukraine will become alienated. And by then, everything, from the armaments to the domestic political, economic, and societal structures, will have fallen down. In other words, Russia is doing the same thing in a slightly different manner, which would have been met if carried out directly, with several domestic and international barriers. The effect of current planning will be exponentially more significant— a bit like ‘more profit with less capital’.
So, if Russia prolongs this war, Ukraine will inevitably will become a shambles. But, even if Russia leaves Ukraine in a short period of time, the conflict inside Ukraine will remain. Because the Ukrainian people have already been divided into two groups. One is anti-Russian, while the other is pro-Russian.
The conflict between these two ideologies will continue with absolute certainty. Russia may formally withdraw, but it does not mean that it will cease all interference in Ukraine. Russia, on the contrary, will provide arms to its supporters just as the West does now to anti-Russians.
Consequently, Ukraine will experience a civil war whose intensity will escalate over time. Some analysts are so confident of Ukraine’s impending collapse that, regardless of Putin’s triumph or defeat, they feel Ukraine will inevitably fall into destruction, and its current leaders will either be assassinated or seek shelter in Europe. But it is true that Ukraine, as a whole, has already entered a sort of death trap. The country must pay for it.
