Against the backdrop of unprecedented environmental catastrophe, economic jeopardy, and political turmoil, troubling events have gone unnoticed which — in the not-so-distant future — will give much cause for concern.
In August 2021, a thorough investigation by Al-Jazeera unearthed strong evidence that the Mauritian island of North Agaléga was undergoing heavy construction work under wraps that appeared to be a militarization — by the Indian navy and partners with links to the Indian government and military. The infrastructure also included a 3000-metre runway, a jetty, and what appears to be barracks and infrastructure that adheres to requirements suitable for military use. According to a report by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative of the Washington DC-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, the hangers measure 180 feet long by 200 feet wide, large enough to house large military aircraft such as India’s P-8I Poseidon.
In September of 2022, news emerged that India’s long-delayed aircraft carrier — the INS Vikrant — was finally inducted into the Indian navy. Although based on an old Soviet design and virtually obsolete even before it finished construction, it is nonetheless a major milestone for the Indian military-industrial complex and a starting point for more advanced, indigenously produced carriers to follow. The INS Vikrant places India alongside a handful of nations to have an aircraft carrier capable of launching fixed-wing aircraft in its arsenal.
Then, in October, India successfully carried out submarine-launched ballistic missile tests, making India the sixth country to have nuclear-powered submarines capable of ballistic missile launch capabilities. Put together, these developments paint a disturbing image that does not bode well for peace and stability in the region. The Indian military’s technological capability has made notable strides — no doubt indulged by the West — as it positions itself as a counter to a considerably more powerful China. The combined impact of these developments threatens to tip the delicate balance of power in the region where three nuclear-armed nations border one another.
Any procurement of advanced military hardware by Pakistan will be made more challenging due to the current geo-political climate, as it is not in Pakistan’s best interests to alienate important allies.
Pakistan cannot afford to ignore these developments. India is not just militarising, but also virtually sees itself as an ascendent superpower drunk on state-endorsed, hate-filled, revanchist RSS propaganda seeping through every level of Indian society and state. A military base in the Indian Ocean would allow India to project power across vast swathes of the Indian Ocean — impacting critical maritime routes and transit — and allow India to wield considerable clout in the region, making naval blockades against unfriendly states a possibility. Furthermore, by international law, an aircraft carrier is legally allowed to position itself within 12 nautical miles (22 kilometres) of any country’s coast. It is not difficult to imagine the devastating consequences this tactical advantage can offer. Combined with nuclear-powered ballistic missile-capable submarines, India has considerably upped the ante when it comes to the challenge it poses to regional peace and stability.
There are some critical factors to consider in this situation, and why this is a complex problem for Pakistan to address beyond falling into another arms race. Any procurement of advanced military hardware by Pakistan will be made more challenging due to the current geo-political climate, as it is not in Pakistan’s best interests to alienate important allies. An arms race is also not an optimal approach due to the colossal strain — economic and diplomatic — it puts Pakistan under as it tries to compete with a belligerent foe that has broader access to financial resources and enjoys encouragement from developed nations in its armament.
The best path forward would not be to compete directly but to counter effectively. Drones and hypersonic missiles are just some promising paths to pursue to that end. They have proven incredibly effective in the field, with hypersonic missiles currently having no effective counter. In modern warfare, there are no examples where a force with air superiority has suffered defeat. A concerted effort to go to every length to acquire and indigenise technology is needed. Pakistan has a budding armament manufacturing base that is primed to acquire, indigenise, adapt, and incorporate advanced technologies — the Sino-Pakistani JF-17 Thunder has been a resounding success. Indigenisation of technology would allow Pakistan to technologically develop, enrich its industrial base, and bolster defensive capabilities at less cost. It would also boost self-reliance with the possibility of exporting the developed military solutions to other nations and offset the cost of technology acquisition and indigenisation. The key to stability in the region revolves around a sustained and sustainable balance of power.
