As 2022 draws to a close; it takes with it many lives lost, or maimed for the rest of the life. It will also be remembered in the specific context of Pakistan as the one which transformed for the worse and in the blessing in disguise; for the better. The worse; many red lines crossed. The better, many myths broken. Economy and polity in shambles; statehood in complete chaos, there has never been a nightmare lived through as was experienced by Pakistanis in 2022.
Taking the issue of statehood first, Pakistanis fully realized soon after the demise of the Father of the Nation that the state envisaged by him was to be soon abandoned to power groups embedded in political movements or institutions; the political parties and the established deep state order. The cornering of people like Madar Millat soon after, were the early warning signs to take note of. What was to follow was even grimmer.
However, during that period, there was some iota of decency in practice. There were seldom any instances when political opponents’ honour was at the altar and discretion of a state employee; usually an intelligence sleuth. Conversations were recorded in German make Grundig spool tape recorders; but they usually found their resting place in these intelligence agencies’ warehouses. There was seldom any public humiliation of any political figure, journalist or a common person; a separatist element; for that matter. Many journalists were imprisoned in jails or in the notorious Lahore Fort’s interrogation centres, but there was a general word out that the person would live and be returned to his family. During those decades, political dissidents were tortured in those prisons; not stripped in cyberspace, as seems to be the order of the day now.
Politically the damage is irreparable. Polarization has attained new highs. The political factions and their supporters do not have any concern for the recovery of the economy. A divided country, already under a technical default situation, has no leadership confidence in place to take radical decisions as chances are slim as to there being any consensus. The developing scenario squarely points towards more dangers ahead; a test for the country, having already transformed itself towards destruction in the process. Any turnaround will be a miracle; human-made; if any in destiny or the tide turned towards better
Closely linked to the political aspect has been the treatment of the fourth pillar of the state. The first military dispensation strangulated the media in its own way, but could not stop the renowned poets in the dissident camp to; from their ghazzals being sung in sittings graced by those very established order figures. The print media years were characterized by slow infiltration of the desks by the deep state in the form of ghost stories; especially after the Zia years; whose era cultivated the first instances of right of the centre generation of “media drones” or fifth generation warriors.
That infiltration was subtle in the form of ‘ghost’ or captioned ‘news desk’ stories. However, with editorials manned by people of integrity like Masoud Ullah Khan and Zaka Rajput; who were within their domain independent enough to put such ghost content in the dustbin of the desk. The owners, while wishing to play safe with the deep state for obvious financial reasons; still had the guts to safeguard the editorial independence of the editors as well as field journalists. In a separate instance; owner editors like Mazhar Ali Khan retained people like Husain Naqi despite the latter’s head-on confrontation with the state over reported content.
However, that has not been the case with Pakistan; as was witnessed in 2022. Any journalist can be shown the door at will and debarred from working anywhere, if he had laid his feet on the proverbial “tail of the bulldog”. Sending goons to a journalist’s home; not falling in line; killing them in foreign lands without any burden on the conscience has become; unbelievably the norm in Pakistan of today. In that context; the outgrowing of the mandate of the institutions has in turn; denuded these institutions of any aura of respect or fear; in the real world. The late Ishtiaq Ahmed, renowned for writing imaginary exploits of intelligence sleuths, must be turning in his grave seeing the day-to-day happenings in Pakistan.
Similarly, a vulgar pushing of content from the powerful quarters has become so much of a routine that ghost stories thrown into the dustbin by courageous desk in-charges might look like fairy tales of the past. As the electronic media dominates as a vehicle to reach the hearts and minds of the people, it is not uncommon for viewers are subject to the torture of live broadcast detailing deep state engagements of the day.
Not to ignore the economy; the preferences of the state as they transformed into an ugly monster clearly explain through actions that recovery of the economy is the last thing in the minds of people who matter; the deep state. The perils of a ‘police state’ demand that the priority is to suppress dissent and not encourage an economic revival. That deep state which has evolved as a result is not interested in warm relations with the neighbours; who are the first destination for any country’s export; thus revenues and consequently lesser dependence on IMF’s SDRs. The preference of that state is ‘negotiating’ standby facilities with the IMF.
Pakistan’s dire straits today are the result of that militarist approach. A city in central Punjab; an exclusive point for multiple varieties of citrus, has never been developed as an export transit point. Rather the state preferences lay elsewhere. The consequences of that approach has been that the economy has gone deep into the donors’ debt trap. As a result, the cost of living has gone up due to IMF-led or -pressured adjustments in fuel prices and imposition of GST amd other taxes to increase the revenue of the governments; federal as well as provincial.
Consequently, the definition of inflation, unlike the traditional definition of being monetary policy inspired, has taken the aspect of being cost-push; costs are pushed due to removal of subsidy on fuel, IMF diktat to keep the dollar floating in the market and lastly factor costs increase due to renewed taxation. The policy package available has forced the policy makers, no other way but to follow the IMF.
The major outcome of the so-called IMF-led adjustment policies have been the buildup of a food riot, with the only exception that the riots have still not broken out in any nook otr corner of Pakistan. The progressive inflationary trends observed since April 2022 have pushed a good deal of the population beneath the proverbial poverty line.
.With consumers’ shrinking ability to buy merchandise; causing decrease in revenues, automatically in profits and consequently stifling the growth cycle; the key policy makers; on either side of the civil and military divide lack an imagination to realize that an IMF injection is not important, rather the breaking of the vicious cycle of poverty and recession is.
Given the analysis of the year now ending, the outlook for the next year 2023, logically does not rest on confident grounds. The politico-economic slide of the country remains unabated. The will to revive the economy remains a distant hope. The coming days and months might see a further slide into ad hoc solutions with no serious will to evolve a recovery policy; be it economics or polity.
Politically the damage is irreparable. Polarization has attained new highs. The political factions and their supporters do not have any concern for the recovery of the economy. A divided country, already under a technical default situation, has no leadership confidence in place to take radical decisions as chances are slim as to there being any consensus. The developing scenario squarely points towards more dangers ahead; a test for the country, having already transformed itself towards destruction in the process. Any turnaround will be a miracle; human-made; if any in destiny or the tide turned towards better.
