AT PENPOINT
The latest audioclips of Imran Khan which have been made public actually seem, because of their timing, to have a precise political aim, rather than a more general blackening of his reputation. However, they also point to other conclusions, shedding light on some aspects of politics in the past.
One of the puzzling aspects is who is releasing the clips. One story doing the rounds is that they are copies taken by an intelligence agency employee, who had custody and is now retired, and were released from abroad. This sounds like some not very expert track-covering. The deniability is rather implausible.
This also brings us against the most apparent issue of spying in this digital age. In the old days, not so long ago, tapping meant spool after spool of magnetic tape accumulating, soon creating a storage problem. Nowadays, a detachable hard drive can contain thousands of hours of recordings. Digitizing the old analogue spool recordings is probably the most onerous part of the process, after which the recordings are almost instantly transmissible. Digitization has much to answer for, and someone has prepared an analogue copy (spool to spool; spool to cassette) can testify.
One of the problems highlighted by the audioclips is that of privacy. There have to be boundaries, no matter what they are. Once upon a time, it was relatively easy. Once no one else was in the room, a conversation remained secret. No Longer. The telephone has proved a great convenience, as there was never any other means of real-time conversation, unless one is to count teleprinters, but phones can be tapped, even when using encryption software. Electronic conversations are insecure.
The next step are videos. So far, none have been produced, except a clip involving PML(N) stalwart Muhammad Zubair, and another PTI stalwart Azam Swati. However, the rumours of several involving Imran have again revived, and seem linked to the audioclips. It would not be going too far if one was to assume that the audioclips are not important in themselves, but as a trailer of what might come.
It is important to note that though the audioclips are supposed to be vulgar, it is not because of what actually is happening, but the references to past activities or to future ones. This raises the spectre of what might be heard on other videos, or what might be seen on videoclips.
Imran’s problems may well have only begun. He should not self-servingly underestimate the power of these audioclips. Voters the world over are hypocrites, who don’t like leaders to be caught with their pants down, even if they themselves have dropped them. The Pakistani voter has not even done that. While Pakistani voters have accepted that their leaders may fulfill their own fantasies, they also expect them to have enough sense not to be caught. If Imran is electorally punished, it will not be for promiscuity, so much as stupidity.
Imran might be made nervous about other audioclips, or about videoclips. Those who might have been Imran’s interlocutors in risqué conversations, or participants in visually objectionable activities, should also be made nervous. The woman alleged to be speaking to Imran is no longer married, but the conversation was such that a married woman would have difficulty explaining it to her husband, no matter how deeply in the past it was supposed to have occurred. Indeed, Imran himself might have a hard time explaining it to his wife, even though he was clearly not married to her, may not even have met her at the time of the conversation.
In fact, even if one was to accept the ‘deep fake’ claim by Imran’s fans, spouses would not find the audioclips so easily explained.
The ‘deep fake’ argument, even if it was proved on the case of the audioclips, has a limited shelf life, and represents a ‘final frontier’ of sorts. If the signs by which a deep fake is detected, could be removed, then wouldn’t the forensic analysts be fooled. Indeed, if there is a forensic audit conducted of the audioclips, and the analyst says they are genuine, that argument would be open for fans to make. Asked to show the technology, they could simply say that it was secret, and only in the possession of the PML(N).
The existence of such undetectable deep fake technology should have resulted by now in videos of various world leaders. (Biden, Putin and Zelensky are obvious targets, but Indian geeks would prefer their own Rahul Gandhis or Narendra Modis as subjects. The application would not be solely political. The porn industry would probably benefit the most, followed by the film industry. In the latter two, there would be no questions asked about genuineness. In fact, untraceable deep fakes might leave the film industry (porn and regular), for they are based on fakery anyway, and no one really cares whether traces show up or not on the print, so long as they cannot be detected onscreen.
However, whatever the technology used, the tendency would be to believe in the audioclips. One reason is that Imran has never made a secret of his previous life. He does claim to have reformed, and though his second wife referred to orgies, his fans suppose him reformed since this third marriage.
That marriage may conceal a secret. His third wife divorced his first husband to marry him. His second wife in her book said she had been told by top intelligence men that she was wrong for Imran. The tapes might answer why Imran was picked up, and why it was thought that he could be controlled. That the tapes have been made public now does not mean that Imran did not know of their existence a long time ago. Their revelation would be known to him before, as a Damocles’ Sword over his head, with the revelation damaging to his political career.
There were two things needed from him: first, to stop naming retired COAS Gen (retd) Qamar Javed Bajwa in his nightly addresses (with him replacing the name with ‘aik admi’ (a man); and to stop the dissolution of the KP and Punjab Assemblies (which has been put off at least until January 11, and probably even later). Those assemblies may well be what is standing between Imran and the release of videoclips.
There is a classic maneuver by spy agencies called the ‘honeytrap’. The purpose is to get material on someone which can be used for blackmail. The targets are usually diplomats of foreign countries, but it seems that some of the targets in Pakistan have been politicians, bureaucrats and judges. Honeytraps require the cooperation of women of easy virtue, and if thry belong to the oldest profession, protection is what they need.
It is possible that Imran fell into a honeytrap. His first and second wives suffered from the defect of themselves not being ‘under control,’ and thus not helping him come under control. It seems his third wife is on the ‘approved list.’ So was her friend Farhat Shahzadi ‘Gogi’ (and how did they become friends?). If the report that Usman Buzdar’s second, urban, wife is also a friend, then the mystery of his selection, which has still got some PTI leaders puzzled, is solved.
While his making use of his celebrity status to have fun may have been natural, it also made him subject to a honeytrap. It also created some questions about his honesty that need answering. Where does the Riasat-i-Madina stand? Were his claims mere hypocrisy? More generally, can someone who becomes subject of a honeytrap entrapment by his own country’s agencies avoid falling victim to some foreign power? Honeytraps are not a discovery of Pakistani agencies, after all.
Imran’s problems may well have only begun. He should not self-servingly underestimate the power of these audioclips. Voters the world over are hypocrites, who don’t like leaders to be caught with their pants down, even if they themselves have dropped them. The Pakistani voter has not even done that. While Pakistani voters have accepted that their leaders may fulfill their own fantasies, they also expect them to have enough sense not to be caught. If Imran is electorally punished, it will not be for promiscuity, so much as stupidity.
